https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/prediction-markets-missed-brazil-u-s-midterms-are-the-big-testContinuously updated, source-cited coverage. https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/prediction-markets-missed-brazil-u-s-midterms-are-the-big-testhttps://www.live-feeds.com/feed/prediction-markets-missed-brazil-u-s-midterms-are-the-big-test#u175935Thu, 05 Nov 2026 01:31:44 +0000Prediction markets failed to forecast Lula's victory in Brazil, leading to a market rout and losses of 24% for some hedge funds. These markets heavily favored Flávio Bolsonaro for three weeks prior to the result. This failure has shifted attention to the U.S. midterms as the next major test for predictive accuracy. While some investors are now hunting for bargains, Lula faces internal friction as supporters oppose the tougher fiscal measures required to stabilize the economy.Why it mattersPrediction markets use financial bets to forecast political outcomes. The collapse of the Bolsonaro b