Renewed fighting between Israel and Hezbollah could scupper the U.S-Iran deal

Live updates

1. 1h ago

   Israel-Hezbollah clashes threaten to unravel U.S.-Iran deal as Geneva talks loom

   A U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and formalize a ceasefire faces immediate risk from renewed Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Netanyahu has resisted calls to withdraw forces, while Iran insists Israeli troops must leave Lebanon under any deal. Markets are reacting to the uncertainty as diplomats scramble to stabilize negotiations. Israel’s military operations remain a wildcard in the fragile diplomatic process.

   What's confirmed:

   • A tentative U.S.-Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz was announced today, though details remain preliminary.
   • Iran’s foreign minister has stated that any final deal requires Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon, a demand Israel has not met.
   • Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and Beirut continue, with Netanyahu framing them as strategic victories while acknowledging restraint to avoid further destabilizing talks.
   • The U.S. has been sidelined in negotiations, with Pakistan and other mediators leading the process, which Israel views as a deep disappointment.
   • Markets are reacting to the diplomatic uncertainty following the announcement of the deal, with regional tensions still unresolved.

   Still unconfirmed:

   • Israel’s military has allegedly been instructed to limit strikes to avoid derailing the U.S.-Iran deal, though no official confirmation has been provided.
   • A major Israeli attack on Hezbollah in Beirut was expected but did not materialize, raising speculation about behind-the-scenes coordination to prevent escalation.
   • The deal’s terms may include indirect concessions to Israel, though specifics remain unclear and unconfirmed.
   confidence 88%
2. 8h ago

   Israel-Hezbollah clashes risk derailing U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal

   Escalating violence between Israel and Hezbollah threatens to disrupt U.S. negotiations with Iran, with Netanyahu rejecting immediate withdrawal from Lebanon despite diplomatic pressure. Israeli strikes persist in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah targets IDF positions. A preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz was expected this week. Israel’s military actions are reportedly being restrained to avoid further destabilizing talks, though Netanyahu has framed recent strikes as a strategic victory over Iran.

   What's confirmed:

   • Israel’s strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon remain active, with Hezbollah drones targeting IDF troops in southern Lebanon but no reported injuries.
   • The Israeli government is reportedly restraining the IDF’s actions in Lebanon to prevent undermining U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations.
   • An initial U.S.-Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz was set to be signed this week, though its future is now uncertain due to regional fighting.
   • Benjamin Netanyahu has declared a 'historic victory' over Iran and ruled out an immediate withdrawal from Lebanon, despite diplomatic efforts to de-escalate.
   • Hezbollah, backed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, entered the conflict in March and remains engaged in fighting alongside Iranian forces.

   Still unconfirmed:

   • Israel’s recent strikes on Iran may have been launched in defiance of U.S. President Donald Trump’s diplomatic efforts, aiming to influence peace talks.
   • Israel’s 'buffer zone' inside Lebanon could be an attempt to secure natural gas reserves, though this claim lacks direct confirmation.
   confidence 88%