Russia may force more men to fight in Ukraine as military faces heavy losses

Live updates

1. 5d ago

   Russia faces force reconstitution as US envoys visit Ukraine

   U.S. Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby says the war in Ukraine could last for years while Russia rebuilds its defense industry and military forces. This comes as U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner held talks in Ukraine following a Saturday meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. While Putin previously denied a new military mobilization, the Russian military continues to face heavy losses. Meanwhile, President Zelensky has threatened to close Russian airspace using drones to force a diplomatic resolution.

   Why it matters

   Russia has spent four years closing legal loopholes to prevent citizens from avoiding military drafts. The conflict remains volatile as both sides have recently increased aerial attacks.

   What is confirmed

   • U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Saturday before traveling to Ukraine.
   • U.S. Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby said the war could drag on for years as Russia reconstitutes its defense industry and forces.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump that Russia lacks aggressive intentions toward Europe.

   What to watch next

   • Evidence of a new Russian military mobilization campaign
   • Official confirmation of Russian airspace closures due to drones
   Sources used for this update (4)

   1. www.pbs.org — U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner hold talks in Ukraine after meeting with Putin
   2. www.ariananews.af — US and Iran exchange fire on vessels near Strait of Hormuz
   3. inews.co.uk — Ukraine’s drones can shut down Russian airspace – and force Putin to the table
   4. www.pbs.org — Putin tells Trump that Russia doesn't have aggressive intentions toward Europe, Kremlin says
   confidence 90%
2. 10d ago

   Putin Denies Fresh Military Draft as Russia Faces Heavy Losses

   Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed rumors of a new military mobilization campaign as complete nonsense and insisted a new draft is out of the question. Despite the official denials, analysts and observers report strengthening signals of imminent Russian mobilization as the military confronts heavy losses in Ukraine. The growing public anxiety comes as Russia spent the past four years closing legal loopholes that citizens previously used to avoid the last draft. Meanwhile, Putin ordered a 72-hour pause in strikes on Kyiv during visits by U.S. envoys to Russia and Ukraine.

   Why it matters

   The Kremlin previously issued identical denials before launching its 2022 mobilization campaign, leaving citizens on edge and debating whether to flee, hide, or sit tight. Kremlin sources indicate that Putin fears physical retaliation if Russia fails to capture all of Donbas. This domestic tension coincides with a broader escalation of aerial attacks approximately four and a half years after the initial invasion.

   What is confirmed

   • Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed rumors of another mobilization as complete nonsense and stated there is no scenario that would require a new military draft.
   • Putin ordered a 72-hour pause in strikes on Kyiv as U.S. envoys visited Russia and Ukraine amid escalating aerial attacks.
   • Russia has spent four years closing the loopholes that helped people avoid the previous mobilization.

   Still unconfirmed

   • There are strengthening signals of an imminent Russian mobilization.

   What to watch next

   • Any official decrees or policy changes regarding a Russian military draft.
   • Movements or further announcements from U.S. envoys following their visits to Russia and Ukraine.
   • Changes in the scale and intensity of aerial attacks on Kyiv following the 72-hour strike pause.
   Sources used for this update (11)

   1. PBS — Russia may force more men to fight in Ukraine as military faces heavy losses
   2. dw.com — Putin denies fresh mobilization campaign in Ukraine war
   3. The Moscow Times — ‘Complete Nonsense’: Putin Dismisses Mobilization Rumors
   4. Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) — Strengthening Signals of Imminent Russian Mobilization
   5. Межа. Новини України. — Kremlin Sources Say Putin Fears Physical Retaliation if Russia Fails to Capture All of Donbas
   6. Meduza — Putin insists a new military draft is out of the question. The Kremlin said the exact same thing before the 2022 mobilization.
   7. Kyiv Post — ‘No Scenario That Would Require It’: Putin Denies New Russian Mobilization – Again
   8. Meduza — Putin dismisses talk of another mobilization as ‘nonsense.’ But Russia has spent four years closing the loopholes that helped people avoid the last one.
   9. euobserver.com — How Russia prepared for a mobilisation that Putin says won’t happen (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,653)
   10. The New York Times — Flee, Hide or Sit Tight? Russians Are on Edge Over Rumors of a Draft.
   11. www.pbs.org — Putin orders a 72-hour pause in strikes on Kyiv as U.S. envoys visit Russia and Ukraine
   confidence 90%