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Russia preparing hybrid attacks on NATO's eastern flank, intelligence warns

Intelligence officials warn that Russia may stage hybrid attacks against Poland and the Baltic states. These provocations coincide with increased Ukrainian long-range strikes. Some NATO members now question the reliability of US support.

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What changed

New reports specify the potential use of unmarked troops and drone or missile strikes.

Live updates

  1. Intelligence warns of Russian hybrid attacks on NATO eastern flank

    Intelligence officials warn that Russia may stage hybrid attacks against Poland and the Baltic states. These provocations coincide with increased Ukrainian long-range strikes. Some NATO members now question the reliability of US support.

    What's confirmed:

    • Intelligence officials warned Moscow could stage hybrid attacks against NATO's eastern flank.
    • Russian provocations target Poland and the Baltic states.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Russia could use unmarked troops against the Baltic states.
    • Hybrid actions may include missile strikes or drone attacks.
    • Poland and Baltic states have doubts about US help due to Trump administration rhetoric.
    confidence 80%
  2. Latvian Intelligence Warns of Russian Hybrid Attacks on NATO Eastern Flank

    Latvian intelligence reports that Russia is planning military and hybrid provocations against Poland and the Baltic states. These actions aim to pressure NATO into ending its support for Ukraine and test alliance cohesion. Officials state that while provocations are likely, a full-scale war is not imminent.

    What's confirmed:

    • Latvian intelligence warns Russia is preparing military provocations against Poland and the Baltic states.
    • Planned provocations may include the use of missiles, drones, or sabotage.
    • Russia is building military infrastructure for 115,000 troops along NATO's northern flank.
    • The goal of these provocations is to pressure NATO to abandon support for Ukraine and test alliance cohesion.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • The Lithuanian Army Commander stated Moscow may strike strategic objects due to despair.
    • Kremlin miscalculations fueled by distorted internal reporting are the primary risk rather than direct war.
    • Russia is preparing for a new war against Baltic states.
    confidence 90%