Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26, 2026

Live updates

1. 16d ago

   Ukrainian Official Labels Russian Donbas Capture Goal Unrealistic

   Pavlo Palisa, a Ukrainian presidential official, states that Russia's goal to capture the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 2027 is unrealistic. Palisa cites a deficit in Russian manpower and stalled advances as the primary reasons for this assessment. This contradicts Russian efforts to push toward Donbas strongholds, where forces have previously moved within 4 kilometres of Sloviansk. While Russia continues its offensive, Ukrainian officials believe mobilization issues and battlefield friction will prevent Moscow from meeting its capture deadlines.

   Why it matters

   Russia is currently targeting remaining Ukrainian strongholds in the Donbas region. This campaign follows a period of volatile fighting where Ukrainian forces attempted to cut off Russian troops in the Donetsk salient. The outcome of this offensive determines control over eastern Ukraine.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Russia's plan to capture Donetsk and Luhansk by March 2027 is unrealistic due to manpower deficits and stalled advances according to Pavlo Palisa.

   What to watch next

   • Reports on Russian mobilization rates
   • Changes in the front line near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk
   • Official Russian responses to the March 2027 timeline
   Sources used for this update (7)

   1. tass.com — Switzerland lost its neutrality in eyes of more than just Russia — ambassador
   2. tass.com — Switzerland should restore diplomacy, mutual understanding with Russia — lawyer
   3. jen.jiji.com — MotoGp, today the Aragon GP is raced - Live
   4. united24media.com — Russia’s Plan to Capture Donbas by March 2027 Is Unrealistic, Says Ukrainian Presidential Official
   5. jen.jiji.com — Volleyball, today Italy-Brazil friendly: time and where to watch it on TV (free-to-air)
   6. www.military-stuff.org — What is Russia Up To?
   7. jen.jiji.com — Ranucci, Floridia: "Rai in dark phase, right-wing edict against investigative journalism"
   confidence 60%
2. 18d ago

   Russian Forces Advance Toward Sloviansk as Fronts Shift in Donbas

   Russian forces are advancing toward the Ukrainian stronghold of Sloviansk, with Army Chief Valery Gerasimov stating troops are within 4 kilometres of the city. While Russia pushes toward remaining Donbas strongholds, the battlefield remains volatile. Ukrainian forces recently executed a manoeuvre on Independence Day that placed Russian troops in the Donetsk salient at risk of being cut off. However, some Ukrainian officers report the front near Kramatorsk is beginning to collapse, suggesting a precarious situation for Ukrainian defenders in the region.

   Why it matters

   Sloviansk and Kramatorsk serve as critical defensive hubs for Ukraine in the Donetsk region. Control of these cities would allow Russia to consolidate its hold over the Donbas. The conflict has reached Day 1,643 as both sides attempt decisive manoeuvres.

   What is confirmed

   • Russian Army Chief Valery Gerasimov stated that Russian forces are 4 kilometres from the city of Sloviansk.
   • The Russian army chief visited troops on the Ukraine front.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Ukrainian officers claim the front near Kramatorsk is beginning to collapse.
   • Russian forces in the Donetsk salient are at risk of being cut off following a Ukrainian manoeuvre on Independence Day.
   • Five drones entered Moldova during a Russian aerial attack on Ukraine, including a decoy drone found near Chisinau.
   • Overnight strikes between Russia and Ukraine resulted in 3 deaths and 2 injuries.

   What to watch next

   • Confirmation of Russian entry into Sloviansk
   • Ukrainian counter-offensive results in the Donetsk salient
   • Moldovan official responses to Russian drone incursions
   Sources used for this update (23)

   1. Institute for the Study of War — Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2026
   2. EUobserver — Russian forces in Donetsk salient are at risk of being cut off, after daring Ukrainian manoeuvre on independence day (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,643)
   3. Russia Matters — The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, Aug. 25, 2026
   4. SPARTANAT.com — The situation 1617 – August 25, 2026
   5. The Baltic Sentinel — Russian Forces Advance Toward Ukraine’s Last Donbas Strongholds
   6. Institute for the Study of War — Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26, 2026
   7. Devdiscourse — Russia's top commander says his troops are 4 kilometres from Ukrainian fortress city of Sloviansk
   8. Kyiv Post — Russian Army Chief Visits Troops on Ukraine Front
   9. A News — Russian army chief visits troops on Ukraine front: ministry
   10. Critical Threats — Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2026
   11. The Moscow Times — Russian Forces Inching Closer to Slovyansk in Eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Region, Gerasimov Says
   12. Institute for the Study of War — Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25, 2026
   confidence 80%