Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9, 2026

Live updates

1. 3h ago

   Russia Reports Zero New Settlement Captures Since October 28

   Russian forces have claimed no newly captured settlements since October 28, according to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry analysis and UNITED24 Media. ISW’s November 9 assessment confirms the stall, while EUobserver says Moscow is emphasizing air strikes instead of territorial claims. WSJ reported earlier that ten months of fighting yielded only 46 square miles of land gains. Al Jazeera notes dwindling territorial advances alongside unsold Russian diesel exports. A Rosstat leak cited by The Express alleges 450,100 Russian soldiers killed between February 2022 and August 2026. Conflict Intelligence Team published a November 5-9 sitrep as of 10:00 a.m. UTC+3.

   Why it matters

   The November 9 ISW assessment follows the November 8 edition and documents a sharp slowdown in Russian offensive operations. Ukraine’s October gains appear to have blunted Russian momentum, leaving Moscow without new settlement claims for nearly two weeks. The casualty figure from Rosstat remains unverified by independent sources and comes from a reported cyber breach.

   What is confirmed

   • Russia’s Defense Ministry has reported no new settlements captured since October 28, per Militarnyi analysis and UNITED24 Media.
   • ISW published Russian Offensive Campaign Assessments for both November 8 and November 9, 2026.
   • WSJ reported that ten months of war produced only 46 square miles of Russian land gains.
   • Al Jazeera reported that Russia’s land gains in Ukraine are dwindling while its diesel reportedly goes unsold.
   • The Express cited a Rosstat leak alleging 450,100 Russian soldiers killed between February 2022 and August 2026.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Hackers penetrated Russia’s Rosstat agency and obtained thousands of classified mortality documents, per The Express.
   • Russia is emphasizing air strikes on Ukrainian cities instead of territorial claims, per EUobserver’s Day 1,719 battlefield update.

   What to watch next

   • Whether Russia resumes claiming newly captured settlements after the October 28 pause
   • Future ISW daily assessments for evidence of renewed Russian offensive operations
   • Independent verification of the alleged Rosstat casualty leak of 450,100 deaths
   Sources used for this update (19)

   1. www.prohockeyrumors.com — New Jersey Devils - Pro Hockey Rumors
   2. www.kyivpost.com — Get the Latest Ukraine News Today - Kyiv Post
   3. jamestown.org — Lessons Learned From Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Russian Military Adaptation and Defense Implications for Baltic States
   4. Al Jazeera — Russia’s land gains in Ukraine dwindle as its diesel reportedly goes unsold
   5. WSJ — Ten Months of War to Gain 46 Square Miles: How Russia Is Failing on the Battlefield
   6. www.moroccoworldnews.com — Le Monde: Fear of a Morocco-UAE-Libya Axis Drives Algeria’s Return to Niger
   7. Institute for the Study of War — Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 8, 2026
   8. Institute for the Study of War — Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9, 2026
   9. UNITED24 Media — After Ukraine’s October Gains, Russia Opens November With Zero New Settlement Claims
   10. Мілітарний — Russia’s Defense Ministry Has Reported No New Settlements Captured Since October 28 - Militarnyi Analysis
   11. EUobserver — Russia goes quiet on claims of territorial wins, starts bragging about air-strikes on Ukrainian cities instead (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,719)
   12. Conflict Intelligence Team — Teletype — Sitrep for Nov. 5-9, 2026 (as of 10:00 a.m. UTC+3)
   confidence 88%