Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 25, 2026

Live updates

1. 1h ago

   Russian Forces Press Frontline as Putin Pivots to Winter Strikes

   Russian forces are exerting pressure across multiple directions in Ukraine while shifting long-term strategic focus toward an expansive winter bombardment campaign. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger acknowledged that the frontline remains static with near-zero net Russian advances, prompting an embrace of Vladimir Putin's new theory of victory. This updated approach relies on combined ballistic missile and jet-powered drone strikes to force Ukrainian capitulation over the winter of 2026 to 2027. Meanwhile, daily shelling continues in border areas such as the Sumy region, and Russian forces are actively interfering with humanitarian food deliveries to residents in occupied Oleshky.

   Why it matters

   The strategic pivot follows battlefield setbacks and successful Ukrainian defensive operations that halted previous Russian ground advances through 2026. President Vladimir Putin is reportedly reevaluating his military goals, moving away from an assumption of endless territorial gains toward a high-intensity, long-range attrition campaign. This winter strategy depends heavily on scaled production of cheap jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles before Spring 2027.

   What is confirmed

   • A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger is embracing Vladimir Putin's new theory of victory relying on long-range combined ballistic missile and jet-powered drone strikes against Ukraine to force capitulation over Winter 2026-2027.
   • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on September 26 that Russia plans to spend $12 billion on the production of jet-powered drones and loitering munitions.
   • An unidentified aerial object that was likely a Russian drone entered Romanian airspace on the night of September 26 to 27.
   • Russian forces are actively interfering with Ukrainian efforts to provide food to residents of occupied Oleshky in Kherson Oblast.

   Still unconfirmed

   • President Donald Trump may be putting off a difficult choice over Iran until after the US midterm elections, according to a former senior US diplomat.
   • Russia attempted to infiltrate Ukraine through a pipeline from Kursk.

   What to watch next

   • Intensification and scaling of Russian long-range missile and jet-powered drone strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure.
   • Ukrainian interceptor program adaptations designed to counter high penetration rates of Geran-type drones.
   • Potential operational impacts of the reported $12 billion Russian drone production spending.
   Sources used for this update (23)

   1. understandingwar.org — Home | Institute for the Study of War
   2. www.kyivpost.com — Latest from the Institute for the Study of War - KyivPost
   3. Kyiv Post — Russia Attempts to Infiltrate Ukraine Through Pipeline from Kursk
   4. Institute for the Study of War — Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2026
   5. www.iranintl.com — Trump may be buying time on Iran until after the midterms
   6. Institute for the Study of War — Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 25, 2026
   7. Ukrinform — Russian forces shell Sumy region border areas daily, 155 people evacuated in September
   8. RBC-Ukraine — Russia claims gains in Kharkiv region - ISW analyzes the situation on the front
   9. ІА Король Данило — Russia is exerting pressure in several directions: ISW did not confirm most of the reported advances
   10. Russia Matters — The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, Sept. 23, 2026
   11. SPARTANAT.com — The situation 1648 – September 25, 2026
   12. www.kyivpost.com — ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 25, 2026
   confidence 90%