Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27, 2026

Live updates

1. 1h ago

   ISW: Putin Targets Ukrainian Capitulation by Spring 2027

   Russian President Vladimir Putin is relying on a new theory of victory centered on massive long-range combined missile and jet-powered drone strikes to force Ukraine to surrender over the winter of 2026 to 2027. According to assessments from the Institute for the Study of War, the strategy utilizes cheap Geran-type drones launched at scale with high penetration rates. Meanwhile, Russian forces are applying pressure across multiple fronts, including attempted infiltrations from Kursk and daily shelling in the Sumy region border areas where 155 people were evacuated in September.

   Why it matters

   Moscow aims to break Ukrainian resilience through sustained infrastructure and population targeting before spring 2027, minimizing the need for indefinite protracted ground campaigns. This aerial escalation accompanies localized ground operations and border shelling designed to strain Ukrainian defense resources. Observers note that Russia is also exaggerating certain battlefield gains in sectors like Sumy to draw attention away from other areas.

   What is confirmed

   • Russian President Vladimir Putin is relying on expansive long-range combined ballistic missile and jet-powered drone strikes to force Ukraine to capitulate over Winter 2026-2027.
   • Russian forces shell Sumy region border areas daily, and 155 people were evacuated from the area in September.
   • A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger embraced Putin's new theory of victory regarding long-range strikes.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Russia attempted to infiltrate Ukraine through a pipeline from Kursk.
   • Russian forces are actively interfering with Ukrainian efforts to provide food to residents of occupied Oleshky in Kherson Oblast.
   • An unidentified aerial object that was likely a Russian drone entered Romanian airspace on the night of September 26 to 27.

   What to watch next

   • Effectiveness of Ukraine's interceptor program against high-volume jet-powered Geran-type drone attacks
   • Shifts in Russian long-range strike intensity as Winter 2026-2027 approaches
   • Official confirmations regarding airspace violations near Romania
   Sources used for this update (21)

   1. Kyiv Post — Russia Attempts to Infiltrate Ukraine Through Pipeline from Kursk
   2. Ukrinform — Russian forces shell Sumy region border areas daily, 155 people evacuated in September
   3. ІА Король Данило — Russia is exerting pressure in several directions: ISW did not confirm most of the reported advances
   4. Russia Matters — The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, Sept. 23, 2026
   5. Institute for the Study of War — Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26, 2026
   6. New York Post — Exclusive | Putin plots payback for Ukraine drone attacks on oil refineries, tells US: ‘Now it’s our turn’
   7. Межа. Новини України. — ISW Says Russia Is Exaggerating Its Sumy Gains to Divert Attention From Lyman
   8. Institute for the Study of War — Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27, 2026
   9. SPARTANAT.com — The situation 1650 – September 27, 2026
   10. The New Voice of Ukraine — Putin relying on massive long-range strikes to force Ukraine to surrender by 2027 — ISW
   11. odessa-journal.com — Opinion: What Could Change in Russia After the Elections - Oj
   12. UNITED24 Media — Putin Wants Ukraine to Capitulate by Spring 2027 Through Intensified Strikes, ISW Says
   confidence 90%