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● LIVE Updated 1d ago · 12 sources tracked

Speculators turn net long on yen for first time since February

Speculators have shifted to net long positions on the yen for the first time since February, according to a CFTC report. The currency has risen nearly 4% this month and is hovering near a seven-month high. This recovery stems from bets on Bank of Japan tightening and pressure from the United States. While some analysts forecast the yen will reach 150 to the dollar, Morgan Stanley favors a trade where the yen weakens to 163 per dollar. Market participants are now awaiting upcoming meetings from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

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  • ✓ Speculators are net long on the yen for the first time since February.
  • ✓ The yen is near a seven-month high.
  • ✓ The yen has increased nearly 4% this month.
🛡️ Source Corroboration: 12 independent reporting domains (90% confidence) ⏱ Read time: ~2 min

What changed

Speculators have moved to net long positions on the yen for the first time in seven months.

Live updates

  1. Speculators turn net long on yen for first time since February

    Speculators have shifted to net long positions on the yen for the first time since February, according to a CFTC report. The currency has risen nearly 4% this month and is hovering near a seven-month high. This recovery stems from bets on Bank of Japan tightening and pressure from the United States. While some analysts forecast the yen will reach 150 to the dollar, Morgan Stanley favors a trade where the yen weakens to 163 per dollar. Market participants are now awaiting upcoming meetings from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

    Why it matters

    The yen carry trade involves borrowing the low-interest currency to invest in higher-yielding assets. A strengthening yen can cause this trade to unravel, forcing investors to close positions quickly. This shift reflects a broader positioning reset in currency markets.

    What is confirmed

    • Speculators are net long on the yen for the first time since February.
    • The yen is near a seven-month high.
    • The yen has increased nearly 4% this month.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Morgan Stanley expects the yen to weaken to 163 per dollar.

    What to watch next

    • Bank of Japan interest rate decision
    • Federal Reserve policy meeting
    Sources used for this update (11)
    1. Reuters — Speculators turn net long on yen for first time since February
    2. Bloomberg.com — Morgan Stanley Favors Trade With Yen Weakening to 163 per Dollar
    3. WSJ — Bank of Japan Tightening Bets, U.S. Pressure Spark Yen Recovery
    4. South China Morning Post — Is the yen carry trade starting to unravel as Japan’s currency strengthens?
    5. FXStreet — CFTC Report: Yen reversal leads a broader positioning reset
    6. The Japan Times — Some analysts forecast the yen going to ¥150 to the dollar, others not so sure
    7. US News Money — Dollar Steady, Yen Near 7-Month High Ahead of Fed, BOJ Meetings
    8. thecurrencyanalytics.com — Yen Soars Near Seven-Month High as BOJ Rate Decision Approaches for Dollar Traders
    9. www.marketscreener.com — Dollar steady, yen near 7-month high ahead of Fed, BOJ meetings
    10. www.businesstimes.com.sg — US dollar rallies as oil prices jump and AI fears knock markets
    11. economictimes.indiatimes.com — Rocket Lab (RKLB) share price
    confidence 90%
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