The 30-Year Treasury Now Out-Yields Dividend Stocks by 2.2 Points. History Says What Followed the Last Time.

Live updates

1. 23d ago

   30-Year Treasury Yields Exceed Dividend Stocks by 2.2 Points

   The 30-Year Treasury now offers a yield 2.2 points higher than dividend stocks. This shift indicates a bond market signaling potential trouble as global bond yields surge. While some analysts suggest long-term value for dividend ETFs like the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF by 2035, current market conditions place U.S. long bonds at risk of a deeper selloff. The disparity between safe-haven government bonds and equity dividends often precedes significant market shifts based on historical patterns.

   Why it matters

   Treasury yields serve as a benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy. When government bonds out-yield dividend stocks, investors may rotate capital out of equities and into lower-risk assets. This movement can signal broader economic instability or an expectation of rising costs.

   Still unconfirmed

   • U.S. long bonds risk a deeper selloff without clear Warsh guidance.
   • The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF will be more valuable and pay a higher dividend by the end of 2035.

   What to watch next

   • Guidance from Warsh regarding long bond stability.
   • Further shifts in the yield gap between 30-Year Treasuries and dividend equities.
   Sources used for this update (6)

   1. The New York Times — Opinion | America Is About to Get More Expensive
   2. NPR — The bond market is signaling trouble ahead. This is why you should pay attention
   3. CNN — Global bond yields are surging. Here’s why it matters
   4. Yahoo Finance — The 30-Year Treasury Now Out-Yields Dividend Stocks by 2.2 Points. History Says What Followed the Last Time.
   5. Bloomberg.com — US Long Bonds Risk Deeper Selloff Without Clear Warsh Guidance
   6. www.fool.com — Where Will SCHD Be in 2035?
   confidence 70%