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● TRACKER Updated 4d ago · 8 sources tracked

The CPI report arrives tomorrow. It could determine whether the Fed hikes rates next week.

The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next week depending on the Consumer Price Index report arriving Sunday, September 13. Traders are betting that the Fed will lean toward a hike as they eye upcoming inflation data. Recent market indicators suggest the likelihood of a rate increase has risen, though the Fed remains undecided. Even a minor shift in the reported inflation rate could determine the central bank's next move.

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  • ✓ The CPI report arrives tomorrow.
  • ✓ The Federal Reserve's decision to hike rates next week may depend on the CPI report.
🛡️ Source Corroboration: 8 independent reporting domains (90% confidence) ⏱ Read time: ~2 min

What changed

Traders are now betting on a rate hike following an increase in the perceived likelihood of the Fed raising rates.

Live updates

  1. CPI report arrival may trigger Federal Reserve rate hike next week

    The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next week depending on the Consumer Price Index report arriving Sunday, September 13. Traders are betting that the Fed will lean toward a hike as they eye upcoming inflation data. Recent market indicators suggest the likelihood of a rate increase has risen, though the Fed remains undecided. Even a minor shift in the reported inflation rate could determine the central bank's next move.

    Why it matters

    The Federal Reserve uses inflation data to calibrate borrowing costs to stabilize the economy. This report arrives during a period of spiking oil prices and rising interest rates. The decision will signal whether the Fed believes inflation is cooling or requires further aggressive intervention.

    What is confirmed

    • The CPI report arrives tomorrow.
    • The Federal Reserve's decision to hike rates next week may depend on the CPI report.

    Still unconfirmed

    • The likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike next week has increased.
    • Traders bet the Fed may lean toward a hike.

    What to watch next

    • Release of the CPI report on September 13
    • Federal Reserve interest rate decision next week
    Sources used for this update (7)
    1. CNBC — The likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike next week just got a lot higher
    2. wsj.com — A Tiny Shift in the Inflation Rate Could Decide the Fed’s Next Move
    3. Stay-At-Home Macro — Something is shifting in the inflation picture
    4. Reuters — Fed, eyeing inflation data, may lean toward a hike, traders bet
    5. CBS News — The CPI report arrives tomorrow. It could determine whether the Fed hikes rates next week.
    6. Reuters — COMMENTARY: US CPI, where the significant and the silly collide
    7. 10TV — Inflation report lands amid spiking oil prices, rising interest rates and Fed on fence
    confidence 90%
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