The CPI report arrives tomorrow. It could determine whether the Fed hikes rates next week.

Live updates

1. 9d ago

   US CPI Beat Increases December Rate Hike Odds to 28%

   A higher than expected US Consumer Price Index report has shifted market expectations, doubling the CME FedWatch odds of a December rate hike to 28%. While this inflation data creates pressure, Kevin Warsh has signaled a hold for October. Investors are now balancing these conflicting signals as they anticipate the Federal Reserve's next move. The print has already impacted forecasts for gold, stocks, and forex markets.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve determines interest rates based on inflation trends to stabilize the economy. Higher CPI readings typically prompt rate hikes to cool prices. This current volatility follows a period where investors expected a pause in hikes.

   What is confirmed

   • US CPI data exceeded forecasts.
   • CME FedWatch odds for a December rate hike rose to 28%.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Kevin Warsh signals an October hold.
   • US economic releases including GDP and PCE are scheduled between October 26 and November 1, 2026.

   What to watch next

   • FOMC interest rate decision next week
   • US jobs and GDP reports scheduled for October 26 to November 1
   • PCE inflation data release next week
   Sources used for this update (3)

   1. thriveinmarkets.com — Economic Calendar: CPI, FOMC & NFP Dates + Market Impact ...
   2. tradmap.com — Economic Calendar — Next Week — tradmap
   3. financefeeds.com — Hot US CPI Lifts December Fed Hike Odds to 28%
   confidence 80%
2. 12d ago

   Inflation Data Leaves Federal Reserve Rate Decision Uncertain

   Investors currently expect the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes in October. However, a hotter-than-expected inflation report has shifted the likelihood of a rate increase to a 50/50 split. Kevin Warsh expresses continued concern regarding inflation and rejects traditional communication methods, adding unpredictability to the Fed's next move. Market participants are monitoring how these inflation trends will impact broader economic indicators, including mortgage rates.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve uses Consumer Price Index data to determine if monetary tightening is necessary to cool inflation. Decisions on interest rates directly influence borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Investors expect the Fed to pause rate hikes in October.
   • Kevin Warsh maintains concern about inflation and rejects traditional communications practices.
   • A hotter-than-expected inflation report puts a Fed rate hike at 50/50.

   What to watch next

   • The Federal Reserve interest rate decision next week.
   • Further commentary from Chen Zhao on mortgage rate effects.
   Sources used for this update (2)

   1. www.cnbc.com — Markets expect the Fed to hold rates in October. Kevin Warsh ...
   2. www.redfin.com — Hotter-Than-Expected Inflation Puts Fed Rate Hike at 50/50
   confidence 60%
3. 15d ago

   CPI Report Due Tomorrow, May Influence Fed Rate Decision

   The US Consumer Price Index report for September is set to be released on October 14, 2026. A hotter-than-expected inflation report increases the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at its October meeting. Markets currently watch headline inflation, core prices, shelter, and rising energy costs. The Fed's decision will be influenced by the CPI data.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is scheduled for the end of October. The CPI report serves as a critical gauge for the Fed before making its decision. A rate hike would be in line with the Fed's efforts to control inflation. Major banks are also set to report quarterly earnings.

   What is confirmed

   • Headline CPI is seen at 3.6% and core at 2.5%.
   • Annual headline inflation reached its highest level since May.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Markets were not yet pricing in a likelihood that the Fed hikes rates later this month on the back of the hotter-than-expected CPI report.

   What to watch next

   • The release of the US CPI report on October 14, 2026
   • The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at the end of October
   • Major banks' quarterly earnings reports
   Sources used for this update (3)

   1. finance.yahoo.com — Hotter-than-expected inflation report puts prospect of ...
   2. www.investmentnews.com — Core inflation comes in hot again, increasing the likelihood ...
   3. spindepth.com — US CPI Preview: 14 October 2026 and the Fed's Next Move
   confidence 85%
4. 18d ago

   US CPI Set to Test Fed Rate Decision

   The upcoming US Consumer Price Index report arrives on October 14, serving as a critical gauge for the Federal Reserve before its interest rate decision at the end of October. Markets watch headline inflation, core prices, shelter, and rising energy costs to determine whether the central bank will implement further rate hikes or hold steady. Meanwhile, major banks including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs prepare to report quarterly earnings, kicking off a period where S&P 500 earnings are projected to jump by more than thirty percent in the third quarter.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve hiked rates last month for the first time since 2023 to contain inflation, making upcoming economic releases vital for tracking the path of monetary policy. Stock investors use these inflation figures alongside corporate profit reports to evaluate market rallies and treasury yields. Analysts debate whether recent energy-driven inflation trends are temporary or if they will force additional tightening before the year ends.

   What is confirmed

   • The September US consumer price index report arrives on October 14.
   • The Federal Reserve hiked rates last month for the first time since 2023.
   • S&P 500 earnings are expected to have jumped by more than 30% in the third quarter according to LSEG IBES.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Natixis economists Christopher Hodge and Selin Aker expect the September CPI report to show a 0.19% increase in the core component and 0.6% for the headline.
   • Natixis believes the Federal Reserve may have already delivered the only hike of the current cycle.
   • September US CPI is forecast to rise to 3.6% to 3.7% as energy costs climb.
   • Energy prices have driven inflation trends while underlying pressures have slightly eased.

   What to watch next

   • The release of the September US Consumer Price Index report on October 14.
   • Third-quarter earnings reports from major banks including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.
   • The Federal Reserve interest rate decision at the end of October.
   Sources used for this update (5)

   1. www.kitco.com — September CPI should be in line, and last month’s Fed rate ...
   2. www.markets.com — US CPI Preview: Will September Inflation Revive October Fed ...
   3. www.wealthiertoday.com — October Inflation Report: Five Numbers Stock Investors Should ...
   4. www.kitco.com — Wall St Week Ahead Bank earnings, CPI headline busy markets ...
   5. www.kucoin.com — U.S. CPI to Determine Fed’s October Rate Decision - KuCoin
   confidence 90%
5. 24d ago

   US CPI report expected tomorrow ahead of Federal Reserve rate decision

   The US Consumer Price Index report arrives tomorrow, October 7, at 8:30 AM ET. This inflation data serves as a primary indicator for the Federal Reserve before its interest rate decision on October 28. Market participants use these figures to gauge if the central bank will implement further rate hikes. While previous Personal Consumption Expenditures data showed cooling, the Fed indicated that more tightening could be necessary by year end.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates to balance economic growth and inflation. Consistent CPI spikes often trigger rate hikes to cool the economy. This specific report provides the final major data point before the October policy meeting.

   What is confirmed

   • The US CPI report is released at 08:30 ET.
   • The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The Fed may implement further rate hikes before the end of the year.
   • The Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates on October 28.

   What to watch next

   • CPI report release at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow
   • Federal Reserve interest rate decision on October 28
   Sources used for this update (4)

   1. www.investing.com — Economic Calendar - Investing.com
   2. tradingeconomics.com — United States Inflation CPI News 454788} - TRADING ECONOMICS
   3. www.federalreserve.gov — Federal Reserve Board - Statistical Release Calendar
   4. thriveinmarkets.com — CPI Release Dates 2026: Full Schedule, Times & Next Report ...
   confidence 90%
6. 26d ago

   CPI Report Scheduled for October 13 Ahead of Fed Decision

   The US Consumer Price Index report will be released on October 13, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This data arrives before the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision on October 28. Market participants are monitoring inflation gauges to determine if the Fed will implement further rate hikes. While the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index has cooled, the Fed previously signaled that additional tightening might be required before the end of the year.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve uses inflation data and employment reports to set interest rate policy. Higher rates aim to curb inflation but increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

   What is confirmed

   • The next US CPI report is scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
   • The Federal Reserve will make its next interest rate decision on October 28, 2026.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The Fed signaled that additional tightening could be necessary before the end of the year.

   What to watch next

   • The October 13 CPI report reading
   • The Federal Reserve interest rate decision on October 28
   Sources used for this update (3)

   1. www.whendomarketsopen.com — US Economic Calendar: CPI, Fed & Jobs Dates and Readings
   2. www.investmentnews.com — PCE inflation gauge cools, but further rate hikes from Fed loom
   3. www.ibtimes.com — The Fed Faces a Crucial Inflation Test Wednesday: What the ...
   confidence 100%
7. 28d ago

   CPI Report May Determine Fed Rate Hike

   The Consumer Price Index report, due out on October 2, 2026, is expected to play a crucial role in determining whether the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at its next meeting. Currently, traders have priced in a better than 90% probability of a quarter-point rate increase. The Fed's decision will be influenced by key economic data, including the CPI and jobs report.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates for the first time in three years as inflation rises. The central bank's policy decision will be shaped by upcoming economic data, including the Consumer Price Index report and the jobs report. A rate hike would be in line with market expectations, but the exact probability remains uncertain.

   What is confirmed

   • Traders have assigned a better than 90% probability that the FOMC will vote to raise the overnight funds rate a quarter point.
   • The Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates for the first time in three years as prices rise.
   • The chances of a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting fell significantly after the PCE inflation report.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Traders see about a 35% chance of an October rate hike, down from about 45% following White House pressure.

   What to watch next

   • October 2, 2026: Jobs report release
   • October 2, 2026: CPI report release
   • Next FOMC meeting: rate hike decision
   Sources used for this update (13)

   1. rateprobability.com — Fed rate cut odds & hike probabilities by meeting
   2. predictionmarketspicks.com — Fed Rate Tracker — FOMC Prediction Market Probabilities ...
   3. www.briefs.co — Fed lifts rates to 3.75% to 4.00% in unanimous vote, with more tightening still on the table
   4. usinterestrates.com — U.S. Inflation - CPI, Core PCE, Breakevens & Survey ...
   5. www.cotreports.net — Economic Calendar 2026 - CPI, NFP, FOMC Exact Dates ...
   6. www.svmuu.com — Economic Calendar_Today's Economic Data Release Schedule_U.S ...
   7. xoomar.com — US Economic Calendar This Week, 28 Sep to 2 Oct 2026
   8. www.theguardian.com — Good news in US inflation report boosts chances Fed won’t ...
   9. predictionmarketspicks.com — Inflation Tracker — Live CPI Prediction Market Probabilities
   10. finance.yahoo.com — October Fed rate hike hinges on two looming economic reports
   11. www.fool.com — The Fed's Preferred Inflation Metric Came in Cooler Than ...
   12. investinglive.com — Which inflation report matters most to markets? CPI vs PCE vs PPI explained
   confidence 85%
8. 44d ago

   Fed Expected to Hike Rates as Traders Assign 90% Probability

   Traders have assigned a better than 90% probability that the FOMC will vote to raise the overnight funds rate a quarter point. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates for the first time in three years as prices rise. Market indicators previously suggested the likelihood of a rate increase had risen, and traders were already betting that the central bank would lean toward a hike as they eyed upcoming inflation data. The upcoming Consumer Price Index report and the central bank meeting next week will determine the final policy decision.

   Why it matters

   Market expectations for monetary policy shift rapidly as participants review incoming inflation data. The Federal Reserve faces crucial decisions regarding the overnight funds rate based on price pressures in the economy. Previous reporting indicated that even a minor shift in the reported inflation rate could determine the central bank's next move.

   What is confirmed

   • Traders have assigned a better than 90% probability that the FOMC will vote to raise the overnight funds rate a quarter point.
   • The Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates for the first time in three years.

   What to watch next

   • The upcoming Consumer Price Index report.
   • The official Federal Reserve rate decision and FOMC vote next week.
   Sources used for this update (2)

   1. www.cnbc.com — The Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates for the first time in three years: Live updates
   2. www.usatoday.com — Interest rate decision live: Fed expected to hike rates as prices rise
   confidence 95%
9. 49d ago

   CPI report arrival may trigger Federal Reserve rate hike next week

   The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next week depending on the Consumer Price Index report arriving Sunday, September 13. Traders are betting that the Fed will lean toward a hike as they eye upcoming inflation data. Recent market indicators suggest the likelihood of a rate increase has risen, though the Fed remains undecided. Even a minor shift in the reported inflation rate could determine the central bank's next move.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve uses inflation data to calibrate borrowing costs to stabilize the economy. This report arrives during a period of spiking oil prices and rising interest rates. The decision will signal whether the Fed believes inflation is cooling or requires further aggressive intervention.

   What is confirmed

   • The CPI report arrives tomorrow.
   • The Federal Reserve's decision to hike rates next week may depend on the CPI report.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike next week has increased.
   • Traders bet the Fed may lean toward a hike.

   What to watch next

   • Release of the CPI report on September 13
   • Federal Reserve interest rate decision next week
   Sources used for this update (7)

   1. CNBC — The likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike next week just got a lot higher
   2. wsj.com — A Tiny Shift in the Inflation Rate Could Decide the Fed’s Next Move
   3. Stay-At-Home Macro — Something is shifting in the inflation picture
   4. Reuters — Fed, eyeing inflation data, may lean toward a hike, traders bet
   5. CBS News — The CPI report arrives tomorrow. It could determine whether the Fed hikes rates next week.
   6. Reuters — COMMENTARY: US CPI, where the significant and the silly collide
   7. 10TV — Inflation report lands amid spiking oil prices, rising interest rates and Fed on fence
   confidence 90%