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● LIVE Updated 3h ago · 12 sources tracked

The Fed's main inflation measure will be released Wednesday. Here's what to expect

Stock futures showed mixed movements as investors braced for key economic releases, including the Federal Reserve's primary inflation gauge. The upcoming data arrives alongside a heavy stretch of labor reports, featuring job openings, private payrolls, initial claims, and September non-farm payrolls. Markets have priced in a significant probability of another quarter-point interest rate hike at the upcoming central bank meeting. Meanwhile, equity indices and currency benchmarks adjusted as oil prices climbed and bond markets experienced a renewed selloff following geopolitical developments involving Iran.

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⚡ Key Developments & Real-Time Context
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  • ✓ The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge will be released on Wednesday.
  • ✓ The US labour market faces a dense data week including JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, and September payrolls.
  • ✓ Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28.
🛡️ Source Corroboration: 12 independent reporting domains (90% confidence) ⏱ Read time: ~2 min

What changed

Stock futures fluctuated as traders processed fresh macroeconomic data following recent interest rate adjustments.

Live updates

  1. US Futures and Markets Await Inflation and Labor Reports

    Stock futures showed mixed movements as investors braced for key economic releases, including the Federal Reserve's primary inflation gauge. The upcoming data arrives alongside a heavy stretch of labor reports, featuring job openings, private payrolls, initial claims, and September non-farm payrolls. Markets have priced in a significant probability of another quarter-point interest rate hike at the upcoming central bank meeting. Meanwhile, equity indices and currency benchmarks adjusted as oil prices climbed and bond markets experienced a renewed selloff following geopolitical developments involving Iran.

    Why it matters

    The Federal Reserve monitors the PCE index closely to evaluate price stability against its long-term inflation target. Wednesday's releases also capture vital metrics on personal income and consumer spending to gauge economic resilience. Analysts are watching these indicators to determine if persistent price pressures will prompt further monetary policy tightening.

    What is confirmed

    • The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge will be released on Wednesday.
    • The US labour market faces a dense data week including JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, and September payrolls.
    • Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Trump reportedly mulls a diesel export ban.

    What to watch next

    • The release of the PCE inflation report, consumer spending, and personal income data on Wednesday.
    • The upcoming JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, and September non-farm payrolls data releases.
    • Micron and CarMax earnings reports.
    Sources used for this update (13)
    1. finance.yahoo.com — What to Expect in Markets This Week: Latest US Inflation, Jobs Data; Micron, CarMax Report
    2. www.zerohedge.com — Futures Slide As Oil Jumps, Bond Selloff Resumes After Trump Spurns Iran Offer | ZeroHedge
    3. www.mitrade.com — Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October F....
    4. CNBC — The Fed's main inflation measure will be released Wednesday. Here's what to expect
    5. Yahoo Finance — Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures little changed ahead of PCE inflation data
    6. Investing.com — PCE data ahead; Trump reportedly mulls diesel export ban - what’s moving markets
    7. Investopedia — What To Expect From Wednesday’s Report On Inflation
    8. MarketWatch — Stock Market Today: Dow set for 200-point rise, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to rise ahead of PCE inflation data; Micron results on tap
    9. WSJ — What to Know About Today’s PCE Index
    10. www.thehindubusinessline.com — Stock Market Today Highlights: Stock markets fall for 3rd day; Nifty down 96 points, Sensex slips to 72,4....
    11. www.cnbc.com — The Fed's main inflation measure will be released Wednesday. Here's what to expect
    12. finance.yahoo.com — Stock Market Today (Sept. 30, 2026): S&P 500 futures rise as PCE inflation comes in below expectations
    confidence 90%
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