The hazy OpenAI growth metric driving Wall Street

Live updates

1. 1h ago

   OpenAI Revenue Gap Triggers AI Stock Selloff

   OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate is approximately $50 billion, which is $20 billion lower than the $70 billion figure previously circulated among investors. This discrepancy, attributed to confusion between gross and net accounting, caused a sharp decline in AI-related stocks including Nvidia, Oracle, and CoreWeave. Traders have expressed frustration over the opaque nature of revenue reporting from major AI firms like OpenAI and Anthropic, leading to a session described as the worst for AI stocks since August.

   Why it matters

   Wall Street relies heavily on annualized revenue run rates to value private AI companies and their public infrastructure partners. Because these figures are often leaked or estimated rather than audited, small accounting shifts can trigger massive market volatility. This event highlights the fragility of investor sentiment regarding the AI trade.

   What is confirmed

   • OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate is approximately $50 billion.
   • The reported revenue is $20 billion less than previously signaled or reported.
   • Shares of Nvidia, Oracle, and CoreWeave declined following the OpenAI revenue report.
   • The revenue discrepancy is linked to a conflict between gross and net accounting.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Leaked documents show OpenAI admitted to a massive financial failure.

   What to watch next

   • Clarification from OpenAI on its official accounting methodology
   • Quarterly earnings reports from Nvidia and Oracle regarding AI demand
   • Further revenue disclosures from Anthropic to resolve black box reporting concerns
   Sources used for this update (26)

   1. Financial Times — OpenAI annualised revenues $20bn less than previously signalled
   2. CNBC — Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report
   3. Reuters — OpenAI's annualized revenue $20 billion less than previously signaled, FT reports
   4. The Information — OpenAI ARR Snafu Highlights Flawed Metric
   5. CNBC — OpenAI's revenue scare, Delta earnings, what investors think of a Starbucks-Chipotle deal and more in Morning Squawk
   6. Bloomberg.com — 'Black Box' Revenue From Anthropic and OpenAI Stumps Traders
   7. Futurism — AI Bubble Teetering on the Brink as OpenAI Admits to Massive Financial Failure in Leaked Documents
   8. Financial Times — The hazy OpenAI growth metric driving Wall Street
   9. Financial Times — Why OpenAI’s revenue numbers really matter
   10. CNN — Tech stocks drop after report that OpenAI’s revenue is lower than expected
   11. Yahoo Finance — Nasdaq futures rise after AI stocks' worst session since August
   12. Barron's — $50B? $70B? How OpenAI’s Accounting Confusion Wrecked the AI Trade
   confidence 90%