The likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike next week just got a lot higher

Live updates

1. 3d ago

   Stocks Rise Despite Rate Hike Bets

   US equities advanced broadly with megacap leadership, snapping a four-day skid in the face of hot consumer price inflation. Financial markets have locked in expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike, alongside at least two more increases priced over the coming year. This shift occurs as traders monitor tightening economic indicators and changing inflation patterns. Meanwhile, US equities showed resilience on the trading floor, brushing off broader macroeconomic jitters concerning future monetary policy actions.

   Why it matters

   Markets previously estimated a 90 percent chance of an upcoming rate increase following monthly gains in core prices, though certain economists previously projected a rate hold. Federal Reserve officials watch these figures closely to determine if the economy can handle further tightening. Bond yields and broader market reactions continue to reflect complex positioning ahead of the central bank policy decision.

   What is confirmed

   • US equities saw broad gains led by megacaps despite markets locking in a September rate hike with at least two more priced over the next year.

   What to watch next

   • The official FOMC decision and rate announcement this coming Wednesday.
   Sources used for this update (6)

   1. pro.thestreet.com — Stocks Snap Four-Day Skid Despite Hot CPI, Attention Turns to the FOMC
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   confidence 100%
2. 4d ago

   Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise to 90% Amid Inflation Shifts

   Markets now bet on a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this coming Wednesday following a monthly jump in core prices. Traders and analysts indicate the Fed is closely monitoring inflation data to decide its next move. While some market participants expect a hike, two economists told Newsweek they expect the Fed to hold rates steady. The decision hinges on whether the U.S. economy can withstand further tightening to combat shifting inflation patterns.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve uses interest rate adjustments to manage inflation and economic growth. A rate hike increases borrowing costs for consumers and businesses to cool an overheating economy. Current volatility in core price data has intensified the debate over whether the Fed must act immediately.

   What is confirmed

   • Markets are betting on a 90% chance of a rate hike this Wednesday.
   • The Federal Reserve is monitoring inflation data to determine its next interest rate move.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The U.S. economy can withstand two rate hikes, according to UBS's Reiman.
   • Two economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates next week.
   • The European Central Bank announced a quarter percentage point hike.

   What to watch next

   • The release of the CPI inflation report
   • The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday
   Sources used for this update (11)

   1. CNBC — The likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike next week just got a lot higher
   2. wsj.com — A Tiny Shift in the Inflation Rate Could Decide the Fed’s Next Move
   3. Stay-At-Home Macro — Something is shifting in the inflation picture
   4. Bloomberg.com — Watch US Economy Can Withstand Two Rate Hikes, Says UBS’s Reiman
   5. Reuters — Fed, eyeing inflation data, may lean toward a hike, traders bet
   6. CNBC — Friday's CPI inflation report is even more important than usual. Here's what to expect
   7. CBS News — The CPI report arrives tomorrow. It could determine whether the Fed hikes rates next week.
   8. www.osoulmisrmagazine.com — The likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike next week just got a lot higher
   9. www.bbc.co.uk — AI boom helps drive surprise UK growth in July
   10. finance.yahoo.com — Fed rate hike odds surge to 90% on monthly jump in core prices
   11. www.newsweek.com — Experts Predict No Fed Rate Cut Next Week: What It Means
   confidence 80%