The market says a Fed rate hike is a done deal. Here's why it might hold steady.

Live updates

1. 49m ago

   Markets treat Federal Reserve rate hike as foregone conclusion

   Investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates today, which would be the first increase since 2023. While a Reuters poll of economists indicates a hike is likely with more to follow, some analysis suggests the Fed could maintain current levels. Market participants are currently treating the decision as a certainty. Investors are monitoring the impact on stocks, oil prices, and bond yields, with some warnings of short-term volatility if the rate increase occurs.

   Why it matters

   The 10-year yield has hit 5% as investors track rising oil costs. Goldman Sachs shifted its outlook to predict this September move. The decision follows a period of steady rates that began in 2023.

   What is confirmed

   • The Federal Reserve is considering its first interest rate increase since 2023.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The Federal Reserve might hold rates steady despite market expectations.

   What to watch next

   • The official Federal Reserve rate decision today
   • Movement in the 10-year Treasury yield
   • Price fluctuations in oil markets
   Sources used for this update (2)

   1. www.fool.com — The Fed Could Be About to Raise Rates for the First Time Since 2023. Here's What History Says Happens to Stocks Next.
   2. www.businessinsider.com — A Fed rate hike will grab headlines today, but these 3 storylines hold the bigger clues for investors
   confidence 80%
2. 22h ago

   Economists Expect Federal Reserve Rate Hike This Wednesday

   The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates this Wednesday, which would mark the first increase since 2023. A Reuters poll indicates economists view the move as likely and anticipate at least one additional hike to follow. While market sentiment suggests the increase is certain, some analysis suggests the Fed could hold rates steady. Goldman Sachs recently reversed its previous outlook to forecast a September hike. This decision comes as investors monitor rising oil prices and the 10-year yield has reached 5%.

   Why it matters

   Interest rate decisions influence borrowing costs for consumers and the valuation of US stocks. Chairman Kevin Warsh is currently facing political tension with Donald Trump over these rate decisions. This period of potential tightening follows a three-year hiatus in rate hikes.

   What is confirmed

   • The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023.
   • Goldman Sachs now forecasts a September rate hike.
   • The 10-year yield has hit 5%.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Chairman Kevin Warsh is on a collision course with Donald Trump regarding rate hikes.

   What to watch next

   • The Federal Reserve's official rate decision on Wednesday
   • Further movement in the 10-year yield
   • Official statements from Chairman Kevin Warsh
   Sources used for this update (10)

   1. Goldman Sachs — What a Fed Rate Hike Could Mean for US Stocks
   2. Bloomberg.com — Fed’s Warsh on Collision Course With Trump as Rate Hike Looms
   3. reuters.com — Goldman Sachs flips forecast, now sees September Fed rate hike
   4. USA Today — Is it finally time? Why the Fed may raise rates for first time since 2023.
   5. Yahoo Finance — The market says a Fed rate hike is a done deal. Here's why it might hold steady.
   6. CNN — The Fed is preparing to raise rates. What if it doesn’t work?
   7. Reuters — Fed rate hike on Wednesday now likely, say economists, and at least one more to follow: Reuters Poll
   8. finance.yahoo.com — Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as Anthropic's AI warning spooks tech traders, 10-year yield hits 5%
   9. www.usatoday.com — Trump is learning he can't bully Fed into lower interest rates | Opinion
   10. finance.yahoo.com — Fed meeting live updates: Anticipation builds with Fed expected to hike interest rates for first time in 3 years
   confidence 90%