The oil shortage is ending

Live updates

1. 39m ago

   Oil shortage easing as Hormuz reopening and Iran deal trigger surplus fears

   Oil prices are stabilizing but under downward pressure as traders anticipate the end of the Iran conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a significant surplus by 2027, though motor oil shortages may linger. A preliminary U.S.-Iran deal has eased immediate supply concerns, but lingering disruptions and weakened demand could delay a full recovery. Prices remain volatile as investors weigh the deal’s durability.

   What's confirmed:

   • Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday as investors assessed whether the Iran war will end and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, with Brent crude futures gaining 47 cents.
   • The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a significant oil surplus by 2027 following the recovery of the Strait of Hormuz.
   • A preliminary U.S.-Iran deal has eased immediate supply fears but lingering disruptions and demand destruction could delay full recovery.
   • Motor oil shortages may persist into 2027 despite broader market stabilization.
   • Oil faces imminent oversupply risks due to the U.S.-Iran deal, according to Fitch Ratings.

   Still unconfirmed:

   • Petrol prices could drop by 8p within two weeks if Trump’s deal holds.
   • A Hormuz toll could further destabilize oil prices, though specific impacts remain unconfirmed.
   confidence 95%
2. 1h ago

   Oil glut looms as Iran war deal triggers market shift

   Oil prices have stabilized but are under pressure as traders bet on the end of the Iran war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a significant surplus by 2027, while motor oil shortages may persist into next year. A preliminary US-Iran deal has eased immediate supply fears, but lingering disruptions and demand destruction could delay full recovery.

   What's confirmed:

   • Oil prices have edged higher but remain volatile as investors assess whether the Iran war will end and whether the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen.
   • Traders are rapidly adjusting bets, shifting from pricing in tanker attacks and supply disruptions to assuming the crisis is over.
   • The IEA forecasts a gradual recovery in Hormuz shipping leading to a significant oil surplus by 2027, though full supply rebound will take months.
   • The US and Iran have confirmed a preliminary deal, with Iran expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and sell oil without restrictions once the agreement is signed.
   • Oil prices briefly touched a three-month low as traders anticipate a surge in supply returning to the market.
   • The IEA has slashed global oil demand forecasts due to demand destruction caused by the Iran war and energy supply shock.
   • Motor oil shortages may extend into 2027 despite the broader crude oil market recovery, as supply chains for lubricants and auto repair materials remain strained.
   • The IEA emphasizes that the unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is critical to ending the energy crisis.

   Still unconfirmed:

   • The US-Iran deal could unravel if renewed fighting in Lebanon or an Israeli attack on Iran occurs.
   • Strategic oil reserves are being depleted faster than expected, risking a broader fuel and refining crisis if Hormuz reopening is delayed.
   confidence 93%