The Return of Middle East Oil

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1. 1h ago

   Middle East Oil Flows Rebound Toward Pre-War Levels

   Crude oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded toward pre-war levels, reaching 98 percent according to JPMorgan and surpassing previous averages excluding Iran according to Kpler data. This recovery comes despite ongoing maritime risks, continued attacks on shipping vessels in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, and logistical constraints. Shell CEO Wael Sawan estimated flows at 80 percent of prewar levels while noting tracking gaps create uncertainty. Meanwhile, international oil prices have hovered near 100 dollars a barrel, and the Group of Seven plans a crude and diesel release.

   Why it matters

   The ongoing regional conflict caused the biggest oil-supply disruption ever by halting roughly 20 million barrels per day of petroleum products. Producers have utilized US military assistance, shuttle tankers, and alternative pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to recapture market share. This rebound pressures global crude prices even as market uncertainty persists.

   What is confirmed

   • Middle East crude oil flows hit 98 percent of pre-war levels according to JPMorgan.
   • Middle East oil exports, excluding Iran, exceeded their pre-war average last week based on Kpler data.
   • Experts state that US military assistance, shuttle tankers, and pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz have driven the export rebound.
   • Oil prices have hovered near 100 dollars a barrel as Middle Eastern supply holds up.
   • Shell CEO Wael Sawan stated that Middle East oil flows have reached 80 percent of prewar levels.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Iran could resort to a scorched earth campaign following the return of Persian Gulf oil flows to prewar levels.
   • Current and former OPEC members are on a collision course in an all-out battle for oil market share in the Middle East.

   What to watch next

   • Implementation of the G-7 crude and diesel release.
   • Sustained stability of pipeline and tanker export routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
   • Further attacks on shipping vessels in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
   Sources used for this update (23)

   1. CNN — Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can’t go on like this forever
   2. Bloomberg.com — Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan Says
   3. BBC — Three reasons Middle East oil is nearly back to pre-Iran war levels
   4. www.bbc.com — Three reasons Middle East oil is nearly back to pre-Iran war levels
   5. The Times — Is the Strait of Hormuz actually open?
   6. wsj.com — Opinion | The Battle of Hormuz Is Turning
   7. Fortune — Persian Gulf oil flows return to prewar levels, but Iran could resort to a 'scorched earth campaign'
   8. The New York Times — The Return of Middle East Oil
   9. reuters.com — Oil climbs after Yemeni Houthis attack Saudi Aramco sites
   10. Al Jazeera — Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite tensions, data shows
   11. WSJ — Oil Prices Fall as G-7 Plans Crude, Diesel Release But Hormuz Shipping Risks Persist
   12. www.ctvnews.ca — Oil exports from the Middle East top pre-war levels in September
   confidence 90%