The spectacle of SpaceX trumps DCF models
SpaceX’s stock (SPCX) closed 19% higher on its first day of trading, pushing its market cap above $2 trillion after a record $75 billion IPO. The surge has reshaped market expectations, with analysts predicting a broader bull run. Investors appear focused on SpaceX’s mission-driven growth rather than traditional valuation metrics. Meanwhile, the company’s Pentagon deal and Saudi-backed stakes add to its geopolitical and financial weight.
What changed
SpaceX’s valuation soared past $2 trillion post-IPO, eclipsing initial projections and drawing comparisons to Elon Musk’s wealth and market sentiment shifts.
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SpaceX IPO Surge Puts Valuation at $2T, Outshining DCF Models
confidence 93%SpaceX’s stock (SPCX) closed 19% higher on its first day of trading, pushing its market cap above $2 trillion after a record $75 billion IPO. The surge has reshaped market expectations, with analysts predicting a broader bull run. Investors appear focused on SpaceX’s mission-driven growth rather than traditional valuation metrics. Meanwhile, the company’s Pentagon deal and Saudi-backed stakes add to its geopolitical and financial weight.
What's confirmed:
- SpaceX’s IPO raised over $85 billion, with the company selling 555.6 million shares at $135 each, making it the largest public offering in history.
- SPCX stock debuted on June 12, 2026, at $135 and closed 19% higher at $161, giving the company a market cap exceeding $2 trillion.
- Investors prioritized SpaceX’s mission and growth potential over discounted cash flow (DCF) models, defying traditional valuation frameworks.
- SpaceX is set to win a $2 billion Pentagon contract for AMTI satellites as part of the Golden Dome missile defense initiative.
- Elon Musk’s fortune now exceeds $1 trillion, widening the wealth gap with Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is closer to the average American’s.
- Analysts at Evercore ISI suggest the SpaceX IPO could reignite a bull market, potentially lifting the S&P 500 to 9,000.
- Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal’s fortune grew further due to SpaceX’s surge, though exact figures were not disclosed.
- Trump allies held significant stakes in SpaceX and xAI before the IPO, with some profiting substantially from the public offering.
Still unconfirmed:
- A sudden Iran ceasefire announcement, coinciding with the SpaceX IPO, may have been strategically timed to influence oil markets and investor sentiment, though no direct evidence links the events.
- Insurance and maritime risk markets may have been manipulated ahead of the SpaceX IPO, though regulatory investigations are ongoing.
- SpaceX’s 12th Starship test flight encountered a booster failure during a water-landing attempt, though the company has not confirmed long-term impacts on development timelines.