The world is certain to overshoot a critical climate threshold, U.N. warns

Live updates

1. 12d ago

   UN Warns Global Warming Certain to Overshoot 1.5 Celsius Threshold

   The United Nations reports that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit established by the Paris Agreement within a few years. While the UN describes this overshoot as unavoidable, it maintains that a pathway exists to return temperatures below the danger zone. The United Nations Environment Programme warns that this breach threatens the survival of small island nations. In Tuvalu, sea-level rise is turning rare coastal inundation events into recurrent crises, with projected damages exceeding 110% of the nation's current GDP by 2100.

   Why it matters

   The 1.5 degrees Celsius target was a global agreement intended to prevent the most extreme impacts of climate change. Scientists are now shifting focus toward minimizing the duration of time spent above this limit. Failure to maintain this threshold increases the risk of irreversible environmental damage.

   What is confirmed

   • Global warming is certain to overshoot the 1.5 degrees Celsius climate target.
   • The UN reports that the world will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit within a few years.
   • A pathway exists to return global temperatures below the danger zone after the overshoot.
   • The United Nations Environment Programme warns that exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold threatens the survival of small island nations.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Climate change has passed the point of no return and the worst impacts are now unavoidable.
   • Projected damages from sea-level rise in Tuvalu will exceed 110% of its current GDP by 2100.

   What to watch next

   • Evidence of specific temperature trajectories for the next five years
   • Policy responses from Paris Agreement signatories to minimize time spent above 1.5 degrees Celsius
   Sources used for this update (14)

   1. AP News — Global warming will exceed limit, UN says in a report that maps path to get back below danger zone
   2. The Conversation — A landmark UN report says the world will overshoot the 1.5°C climate target. What happens now?
   3. The Washington Post — The world is certain to overshoot a critical climate threshold, U.N. warns
   4. New Scientist — Can we really reverse global warming after overshooting 1.5°C?
   5. Reuters — Global temperature rises to exceed 1.5 Celsius 'within a few years', UNEP says
   6. Euronews.com — The world is on track to overshoot 1.5°C – but there’s a pathway out
   7. unep.org — Overshoot explained: 5 things to understand about a world beyond 1.5°C
   8. CBC — Climate change past the point of no return, UN says, as worst impacts are now unavoidable
   9. www.scientificamerican.com — U.N. admits exceeding the 1.5-degree-Celsius global warming target is “unavoidable”
   10. vox.com — UN report: The world is whiffing on its biggest climate goal
   11. Inside Climate News — Climate ‘Overshoot’ Is Coming—Are We Ready?
   12. www.engadget.com — UN report says global warming will surpass the goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius
   confidence 95%