‘This is an all-out war’: Inside the casino industry’s fight to stop prediction markets

Live updates

1. 12d ago

   Prediction Markets Expand Ahead of NFL Season Despite Legal Pushback

   Prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are actively marketing Super Bowl and MVP contracts ahead of the 2026 NFL season. This push occurs while the platforms face intense regulatory scrutiny from the casino industry and recent appellate court rulings classifying sports contracts as gambling. Media figures and sports franchises face parallel integrity and rule-following controversies, highlighting broader tensions around sports wagering and proxy betting rules. Meanwhile, promotional codes and daily platform comparisons continue to attract retail users to these unregulated or disputed financial exchanges.

   Why it matters

   Traditional casino operators view prediction markets as an existential threat and are fighting to preserve state-level oversight and traditional licensing frameworks. The ongoing legal battle between prediction platforms and regulators centers on whether these contracts constitute federally regulated financial swaps or state-regulated gambling. Maintaining consumer trust in professional sports outcomes remains central to the industry as scrutiny intensifies across multiple fronts.

   What is confirmed

   • Kalshi and Polymarket offer NFL prediction markets and promotional codes ahead of the 2026 NFL season.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Bill Simmons used his daughter's 21-year-old boyfriend to place proxy bets in Massachusetts because he resides in California.

   What to watch next

   • Supreme Court appeals regarding prediction market regulations
   • State-level prosecution developments against Kalshi in Arizona
   Sources used for this update (5)

   1. www.cbssports.com — NFL prediction markets 2026: Learn more about Kalshi, Polymarket, others ahead of 2026 NFL season
   2. sports.yahoo.com — ‘Learned my lesson’: Bill Simmons breaks silence on gambling controversy
   3. www.hollywoodreporter.com — The Fix Is Not In: Can Sports Gambling’s Trust Crisis Be Solved?
   4. nypost.com — Inside the ‘ruse’ of the Clippers’, Kawhi Leonard business deals
   5. www.cbssports.com — Our picks for the best prediction market promos and bonuses: September 2026
   confidence 90%
2. 15d ago

   US Appeals Court Rules Against Kalshi in Prediction Market Dispute

   A US appeals court ruled that prediction markets should be regulated as gambling, dealing a major blow to Kalshi. The court determined that Kalshi's sports bets are not swaps but are gambling under a different name. This decision upholds state oversight of prediction markets, specifically siding with Nevada and potentially reviving a prosecution against Kalshi in Arizona. The ruling sets the stage for a likely legal battle at the Supreme Court as the casino industry continues its effort to stop the growth of prediction markets.

   Why it matters

   Prediction markets allow users to bet on the outcomes of future events. Kalshi has attempted to categorize these activities as financial swaps to avoid gambling regulations. This legal distinction determines whether these platforms fall under state gambling laws or federal financial oversight.

   What is confirmed

   • A US appeals court ruled that prediction markets should be regulated as gambling.
   • The court ruled that Kalshi cannot block Nevada's oversight of prediction markets.
   • The court found that Kalshi sports bets are gambling rather than swaps.
   • The ruling potentially revives a prosecution against Kalshi in Arizona.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The legal fight over prediction markets will likely move to the Supreme Court.
   • Three Trump-appointed judges delivered the ruling against Kalshi.

   What to watch next

   • A potential appeal or petition to the US Supreme Court
   • Further legal action from Arizona prosecutors regarding Kalshi
   Sources used for this update (12)

   1. www.cbssports.com — NBA Championship predictions 2027: Here's who is favored to win the title
   2. Reuters — Kalshi cannot block Nevada oversight of prediction markets, US appeals court rules
   3. CNBC — U.S. appeals court rules against prediction markets, sets up likely fight at Supreme Court
   4. Ars Technica — Court rules Kalshi sports bets aren’t “swaps,” just gambling with a different name
   5. The New York Times — Prediction Markets Should Be Regulated as Gambling, Appeals Court Says
   6. Arizona Mirror — 9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight, potentially reviving Arizona's prosecution
   7. Engadget — US Appeals Court Sides With Nevada In Legal Fight With Kalshi
   8. CNN — ‘This is an all-out war’: Inside the casino industry’s fight to stop prediction markets
   9. The New Republic — Three Trump-Appointed Judges Deliver Major Blow to Kalshi
   10. Yahoo — Appeals court backs state oversight of prediction market Kalshi | The Hill Sunday
   11. Front Office Sports — What Kalshi’s Big Court Loss Means for Prediction Markets
   12. richmond.com — US military families ride 'roller coaster of emotions' over six months of Iran war
   confidence 95%