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● LIVE Updated 1h ago · 18 sources tracked

Treasury 10-Year Yield Tops 4.75%, Highest Since January 2025

The US 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 4.75% after August nonfarm payrolls grew by 162,000, significantly exceeding the 53,000 jobs economists expected. This labor market strength has revived rate-hike trades, with fed funds futures traders now pricing in a 58% chance of a Federal Reserve increase. The resulting bond selloff pushed the Nasdaq lower and caused the Dow to fall, ending a brief rally driven by previous hopes for rate relief.

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What changed

August payroll data arrived far higher than anticipated, shifting market expectations toward a September rate hike.

Live updates

  1. Treasury Yields Climb as August Payrolls Triple Forecasts

    The US 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 4.75% after August nonfarm payrolls grew by 162,000, significantly exceeding the 53,000 jobs economists expected. This labor market strength has revived rate-hike trades, with fed funds futures traders now pricing in a 58% chance of a Federal Reserve increase. The resulting bond selloff pushed the Nasdaq lower and caused the Dow to fall, ending a brief rally driven by previous hopes for rate relief.

    Why it matters

    Rising yields increase borrowing costs across the economy, affecting everything from government debt to consumer mortgages. This movement follows a period of volatility linked to oil prices near $95 a barrel and tensions between the US and Iran.

    What is confirmed

    • Nonfarm payrolls grew by 162,000 in August.
    • Economists had expected 53,000 jobs.
    • Fed funds futures traders price a 58% chance of a rate hike.

    Still unconfirmed

    • A 7 percent mortgage rate is psychologically worse than economical, according to a Zions Bank expert.

    What to watch next

    • Federal Reserve interest rate decision for September
    • Future nonfarm payroll reports
    Sources used for this update (5)
    1. www.fxempire.com — Nasdaq 100: Nasdaq Flips Lower as Hot Payrolls Revive Rate-Hike Trade
    2. finance.yahoo.com — Dow falls after August jobs report triples forecasts, boosts rate-hike bets
    3. www.lse.co.uk — US close: Stocks head south as hot August jobs print fuels rate-hike fears
    4. www.deseret.com — Advice for Utah homebuyers as rates near previous highs
    5. finance.yahoo.com — US Equity Indexes Mixed This Week Amid Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Increase in September
    confidence 100%

  2. US 10-Year Treasury Yields Hit Multi-Year High Amid Oil Price Surges

    The US 10-year Treasury yield has reached its highest level since 2023. This spike follows oil prices hovering near $95 a barrel, which has increased inflation fears and pressured the bond market. While New York markets rebounded on September 3 after a selloff linked to US-Iran tensions, Treasury yields have fluctuated recently. Some declines occurred following comments from Federal Reserve official Waller, which reduced expectations for further rate hikes. Traders are now awaiting the August payrolls report to gauge the economic outlook.

    Why it matters

    Bond yields typically rise when investors expect higher inflation or interest rate hikes to combat it. Persistent inflation has led some analysts to compare Jerome Powell's tenure to that of former Fed chair Arthur Burns. The current volatility reflects a struggle between geopolitical instability and Federal Reserve messaging.

    What is confirmed

    • 10-year Treasury yields have reached their highest level since 2023.
    • Oil prices have hovered near $95 a barrel.
    • New York markets rebounded on September 3 following a selloff caused by US-Iran tensions.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Comments from Federal Reserve official Waller led to a decline in US yields by denting rate hike expectations.
    • Kevin Warsh has repeatedly cited that inflation has remained above target for 65 months.

    What to watch next

    • Release of the August payrolls report
    • Further interest rate messaging from Federal Reserve officials
    Sources used for this update (8)
    1. finance.yahoo.com — 10-year Treasury touches highest level since 2023 as oil prices stay elevated
    2. finance.yahoo.com — 10-year Treasury yields jump to multi-year high as inflation fears persist
    3. finance.yahoo.com — ’65 Months of Above Target Inflation’: Powell’s Legacy May Echo Arthur Burns
    4. finance.biggo.com — Dow rebounds, briefly up 298 points; crude oil futures hold in $92 range
    5. www.cnbc.com — Stock futures are little changed as traders await August jobs report: Live updates
    6. www.livemint.com — US yields decline as Waller comments dent rate hike expectations
    7. finance.yahoo.com — More OEMs plan reshoring investments despite tariff, cost uncertainty
    8. en.sedaily.com — Large Nonghyup Co-ops Add 1.5 Trillion Won in Property Loans
    confidence 90%

  3. Treasury 10-Year Yield Hits 4.75%, Highest Since January 2025

    The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.75%, its highest level since January 2025, driven by surging oil prices and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran. This increase has sparked concerns about inflation and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. The yield's rise has contributed to a bond selloff and impacted stock markets, with the tech sector leading losses.

    Why it matters

    The recent surge in Treasury yields is attributed to rising oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran. These factors have fueled inflation concerns, influencing market expectations about future Federal Reserve actions. Higher yields can strengthen the dollar and increase borrowing costs, affecting economic growth and stock markets.

    What is confirmed

    • The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.75%.
    • This is the highest level for the 10-year Treasury yield since January 2025.
    • The yield's increase is driven by surging oil prices and geopolitical tensions.
    • The rise in yields has sparked concerns about inflation and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller expressed concerns about the Treasury's bond strategy.

    What to watch next

    • Federal Reserve interest rate decisions
    • US inflation data releases
    • Developments in US-Iran relations
    Sources used for this update (13)
    1. CNBC — Treasury yields tick lower as U.S.-Iran war moves back into the spotlight
    2. Bloomberg.com — Treasury 10-Year Yield Tops 4.75%, Highest Since January 2025
    3. Reuters — COMMENTARY: Trading Day: Bonds shaken, and stirred
    4. MarketWatch — The 10-year Treasury yield just crossed a key threshold that should make people ‘sit up and take notice’
    5. KITCO — Mapping the Market: US 10-year Treasury yields eye further gains
    6. Investing.com — Treasury yields advance as Warsh’s hawkish stance and oil spike fuel Sept hike
    7. Investor's Business Daily — 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Out, Testing Bessent, Hitting Stocks
    8. Bloomberg.com — Asian Stocks to Fall as Iran Flare-Up Boosts Oil: Markets Wrap
    9. www.briefs.co — 10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 4.75% as Oil Jump Fuels Selloff
    10. blockonomi.com — Markets Decline as Treasury Yields Surge to January 2025 Highs
    11. finance.yahoo.com — 10-Year Yield Hits Highest Since January 2025 as US-Iran Flare-Up Renews Inflation Fears
    12. www.cnbc.com — 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hits highest level since November 2023 as global bond sell-off continues
    confidence 90%