Trump Ally Nemesis Is Favorite for Nobel Peace Prize
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has become a favorite for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in prediction markets, while U.S. President Donald Trump's odds have plummeted. Some analysts and markets now give Trump a "near-zero" chance of winning, citing his ongoing conflict with Iran. Other contenders include Volodymyr Zelenskyy, David Attenborough, and Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms. The White House previously labeled Trump "The Peace President" following a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release agreement, but experts suggest his previous lobbying efforts may now hinder his candidacy.
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- ✓ The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced 287 nominations for the 2026 prize.
- ✓ Maria Corina Machado won the previous Nobel Peace Prize and later gave her gold medal to Donald Trump.
- ✓ Prediction markets have given Donald Trump a "near-zero" chance of winning the award.
What changed
Prediction markets now favor Mark Carney over Donald Trump, whose odds have dropped to near-zero due to conflict in Iran.
Live updates
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Canadian PM Mark Carney Emerges as Nobel Peace Prize Favorite
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has become a favorite for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in prediction markets, while U.S. President Donald Trump's odds have plummeted. Some analysts and markets now give Trump a "near-zero" chance of winning, citing his ongoing conflict with Iran. Other contenders include Volodymyr Zelenskyy, David Attenborough, and Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms. The White House previously labeled Trump "The Peace President" following a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release agreement, but experts suggest his previous lobbying efforts may now hinder his candidacy.
Why it matters
The Nobel Committee has shortlisted 287 candidates for the 2026 prize. Trump has long sought the award and previously received the gold medal of last year's winner, Maria Corina Machado, after she gifted it to him. Carney's rise in the rankings follows his global profile for opposing Trump.
What is confirmed
- The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced 287 nominations for the 2026 prize.
- Maria Corina Machado won the previous Nobel Peace Prize and later gave her gold medal to Donald Trump.
- Prediction markets have given Donald Trump a "near-zero" chance of winning the award.
Still unconfirmed
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms lead Kalshi's prediction market at 13%.
- The White House dubbed Donald Trump 'The Peace President' on X after a Gaza ceasefire agreement.
What to watch next
- The official announcement of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate.
- Developments in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
- Further shifts in prediction market odds for Mark Carney and other candidates.
confidence 80%Sources used for this update (24)
- The Guardian — Forget the famous names. Here is who actually deserves this year’s Nobel peace prize | Haakon Gjerløw
- The Daily Beast — Trump Ally Nemesis Is Favorite for Nobel Peace Prize
- National Post — Is Carney a Nobel Peace Prize contender? Here's what one prediction market says
- The Independent — Mark Carney set to snatch Nobel Peace Prize from Trump
- Oddschecker — Nobel Peace Prize 2026 Odds: Attenborough & Trump Among Contenders
- WV News — Canada Carney Nobel Time
- flipboard.com — Canada could steal the one prize Trump wants most
- www.timesnownews.com — Trump's Nobel Dream Takes A Hit, Mark Carney Emerges As ...
- www.thedailybeast.com — Trump's Nobel Peace Prize Hopes Get a Brutal Reality Check
- www.thedailybeast.com — Trump Ally Nemesis Is Favorite for Nobel Peace Prize
- www.yahoo.com — Trump Ally Nemesis Is Favorite for Nobel Peace Prize - Yahoo
- flipboard.com — Trump Ally Nemesis Is Favorite for Nobel Peace Prize
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