Ukraine war latest: Russia's oil refining capacity falls as damage from Moscow strikes sets in
Ukrainian attacks have knocked out more than 45 percent of projected Russian refining capacity, severely constricting domestic fuel supplies. Gasoline is increasingly unavailable across many areas, or commands prices two to three times higher than rates seen in major cities. The compounding operational damage from these targeted Moscow strikes is pressuring international diesel markets. Russian authorities now anticipate further fuel deterioration and are actively drafting contingency crisis scenarios to manage the deepening shortages.
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- ✓ Ukraine has knocked out over 45% of Russia's projected refining capacity.
- ✓ Gasoline is either unavailable or sold at prices two to three times higher than in major cities in many areas, according to exiled Russian economist Andrei Yakovlev.
- ✓ Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have put global diesel supply under renewed pressure.
What changed
Ukrainian drone operations have successfully disabled nearly half of Russia's projected oil refining capacity.
Live updates
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Ukraine Strikes Cripple Russian Oil Refineries
Ukrainian attacks have knocked out more than 45 percent of projected Russian refining capacity, severely constricting domestic fuel supplies. Gasoline is increasingly unavailable across many areas, or commands prices two to three times higher than rates seen in major cities. The compounding operational damage from these targeted Moscow strikes is pressuring international diesel markets. Russian authorities now anticipate further fuel deterioration and are actively drafting contingency crisis scenarios to manage the deepening shortages.
Why it matters
The sustained campaign against Russian energy infrastructure represents a strategic escalation in the ongoing war. By targeting domestic refining capacity, the strikes directly impact both civilian fuel availability and military logistics within Russia. The resulting supply squeeze highlights vulnerabilities in regional energy distribution networks.
What is confirmed
- Ukraine has knocked out over 45% of Russia's projected refining capacity.
- Gasoline is either unavailable or sold at prices two to three times higher than in major cities in many areas, according to exiled Russian economist Andrei Yakovlev.
- Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have put global diesel supply under renewed pressure.
Still unconfirmed
- A worsening fuel situation is expected across Russia, with crisis scenarios already being prepared.
What to watch next
- Implementation and effectiveness of Russian crisis scenarios for domestic fuel distribution
- Further movements in global diesel prices linked to refinery downtime
- Recovery timelines for damaged Russian refining facilities
confidence 95%Sources used for this update (5)
- UNITED24 Media — Ukraine Knocks Out Over 45% of Russia’s Projected Refining Capacity
- kyivindependent.com — Ukraine war latest: Russia's oil refining capacity falls as damage from Moscow strikes sets in
- ChemAnalyst — Ukraine Strikes on Russian Refineries Put Global Diesel Supply Under Renewed Pressure
- Le Monde.fr — Andrei Yakovlev, Russian economist in exile: 'In many areas, gasoline is either unavailable or sold at prices two to three times higher than in major cities'
- Українські Національні Новини (УНН) — In Russia, a worsening fuel situation is expected, and crisis scenarios are already being prepared
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