War has strengthened the Islamic Republic. Peace could split it

Live updates

1. 1d ago

   Iranian Factions Clash Over Post-War US Agreement

   A peace deal between the US, Israel, and Iran has ceased active hostilities. Hardliners retain power while pragmatists and purists disagree on a 14-point memorandum. Some Iranian factions believe any agreement with the US is detrimental.

   Still unconfirmed:

   • Some forces in Iran believe no agreement is a good agreement with the United States.
   • Iran-backed proxy forces conducted more than two hundred attacks on the US.
   • Conflict between Israel and Hamas in October 2023 escalated tensions between Iran and Israel.
   confidence 70%
2. 4d ago

   War Stabilizes Islamic Republic as Peace Deal Creates Internal Rifts

   A nearly four-month war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran ended on Monday with an agreement to halt hostilities. While the conflict failed to dislodge the clerical leadership, a new 14-point memorandum from the Trump administration is now dividing Iranian pragmatists and purists. Hardliners remain in power despite the cessation of fighting.

   What's confirmed:

   • The war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran ended on Monday with an agreement to halt hostilities.
   • The Trump administration unveiled a 14-point memorandum between the U.S. and Iran.
   • Months of fighting failed to dislodge the clerical leadership of the Islamic Republic.
   • Donald Trump launched the war with Israel on February 28.

   Still unconfirmed:

   • The Trump administration is denying reports that the U.S. will give Iran $300 billion as part of the deal.
   • Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is the leading pragmatist within the regime.
   • The war reshaped Iran into a more militarized Islamic Republic 3.0.
   • Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is no longer the supreme leader.
   confidence 85%