We're about to exceed 1.5-degree global warming limit, according to the UN

Live updates

1. 13d ago

   UN Report Warns Global Warming Likely to Exceed 1.5C Limit

   The United Nations Environment Programme warns that global temperatures will likely exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius limit established by the 2015 Paris Agreement. A September 3 report titled Limiting Overshoot indicates that warming could peak at approximately 1.8 degrees even under optimistic scenarios based on current government commitments. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell stated that this threshold is essential for the survival of small island states. While an overshoot appears inevitable, the UN suggests it is possible to return to 1.5 degrees through an overshoot, peak and decline plan.

   Why it matters

   The 1.5C target serves as a critical benchmark to prevent the most severe impacts of climate change. Exceeding this limit increases the frequency of destructive extreme weather, glacier melt, and the submersion of coastal cities. World leaders are currently preparing for the COP31 climate summit in Türkiye this November.

   What is confirmed

   • The UN Environment Programme published a report on September 3, 2026, warning that global temperatures are likely to exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius limit.
   • Under optimistic scenarios based on current government commitments, warming could peak at around 1.8 degrees.
   • August 2026 tied with July 2023 as the joint hottest month on record worldwide.
   • The UN suggests it is possible to return to 1.5 degrees Celsius via an overshoot, peak and decline plan.
   • The Arctic is warming over three times faster than the global average.
   • World leaders are preparing for the COP31 climate summit in Türkiye in November.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Global temperatures may stay near record highs through 2030.
   • Earth systems are rapidly destabilizing according to the seventh edition of an annual report in BioScience.

   What to watch next

   • Outcomes of the COP31 climate summit in Türkiye in November
   • Evidence of temperature decline following the proposed overshoot, peak and decline plan
   Sources used for this update (14)

   1. indiawest.com — Global Warming Set to Intensify Through 2030: UN Report ...
   2. universitytimes.ie — Overshooting 1.5 Degrees Celsius: A Bleak Report
   3. tanjent-energy.com — Global heating will hit at least 1.8C, UN warns, and there ...
   4. news.un.org — ‘Overshoot is not a reason to surrender’: UN calls for ...
   5. pina.com.fj — 1.5°C overshoot inevitable, action must limit the damage : UN ...
   6. www.un.org — Media unite behind ‘Promise of 1.5°C’ climate campaign in ...
   7. www.tvcnews.tv — Amina Mohammed: World May Temporarily Breach 1.5°C Threshold
   8. www.yahoo.com — EU to uphold global warming target after overshoot at climate ...
   9. eos.org — 2026 State of the Climate Report Shows a Planet Reaching Its ...
   10. www.postcourier.com.pg — Drum – Tidbit
   11. www.gnn.asia — UN Warns Global Warming Could Breach 1.5°C Threshold Within ...
   12. theenergypioneer.com — ‘Every Day Above 1.5 C Is Now Going To Matter’ - The Energy ...
   confidence 95%
2. 27d ago

   UN warns 70% chance global warming exceeds 1.5C by 2029

   The United Nations Environment Programme expects global warming to cross the 1.5C threshold within the next few years. UN projections indicate a 70% chance that average warming between 2025 and 2029 will top 1.5C. This follows 2023 and 2024, which were the two hottest years ever recorded. Experts and UN reports suggest that while this limit may be breached, collective action on climate pledges and public health adaptation can still mitigate the impacts.

   Why it matters

   The 1.5C limit is a critical benchmark for avoiding the most severe effects of climate change. Current trends suggest that existing government pledges may not be enough to prevent the overshoot. Efforts are now shifting toward managing the period of peak warming and bringing temperatures back down.

   What is confirmed

   • The UN Environment Programme announced on September 2 that global warming is expected to cross 1.5C within the next few years.
   • The years 2023 and 2024 were the two hottest years ever recorded.
   • UN projections indicate a 70% chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 will exceed 1.5C.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Governments will fail to limit warming even if all existing climate pledges are delivered.

   What to watch next

   • Updated emissions data from governments regarding existing climate pledges.
   • New UN Environment Programme reports on the specific duration of the warming overshoot.
   Sources used for this update (6)

   1. www.thedailystar.net — UN says 70% chance that 2025-2029 average warming will top 1.5C
   2. mustsharenews.com — Global warming projected to exceed 1.5°C in a few years, what ...
   3. www.pentictonherald.ca — ‘Not a reason to give up’: Canada warms twice as fast as world to breach 1.5 degrees limit
   4. cambodianess.com — What It Means for Global Warming to Exceed 1.5°C
   5. sph.brown.edu — Expert Q&A: Climate at the limit | School of Public Health ...
   6. www.edouardstenger.com — The world is zooming by 1.5°C of warming. What next ?
   confidence 90%
3. 31d ago

   UN warns global warming to exceed 1.5°C soon

   The world is likely to exceed the 1.5°C global warming limit within a few years, according to multiple UN reports. A new strategy focuses on managing the overshoot period, peaking, and decline to bring temperatures back below the danger zone. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that urgent action is needed to reduce emissions and limit extreme weather impacts. The reports confirm that current warming trends make the previous limit unattainable in the short term.

   Why it matters

   Exceeding the 1.5°C limit poses significant risks, including more frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, and storms. The UN's strategy shift acknowledges that surpassing this threshold is now unavoidable and emphasizes the need for adaptation and managing consequences. The reports' findings are based on the latest climate science and modeling.

   What is confirmed

   • Global temperatures are projected to exceed 1.5°C within the next few years.
   • The world will likely overshoot the Paris agreement's 1.5°C warming target without faster emissions cuts.
   • The UNEP report suggests a narrow path back to 1.5°C by 2100.

   Still unconfirmed

   • 2026 could be the turning point on climate action, according to Al Gore.

   What to watch next

   • The release of more detailed climate models and projections
   • International climate negotiations and agreements
   • The implementation of emission reduction strategies and their impacts
   Sources used for this update (8)

   1. www.scientificamerican.com — Trump rejects AI regulation, citing parallels with climate change in UN address
   2. www.scientificamerican.com — 2026 could be the turning point on climate action, Al Gore says
   3. cde.news — UN Warns Global Temperatures to Exceed 1.5°C Soon
   4. thegist.co.nz — Global warming will exceed 1.5°C, UN report warns – The Gist
   5. www.karmactive.com — UNEP Confirms World Will Overshoot 1.5C Warming Limit, Warns ...
   6. worldhumanistforum.org — UNEP: the world will cross 1.5°C, but can still limit the ...
   7. beyond-coal.jp — 【Report】UNEP Report: World set to cross 1.5°C global warming
   8. www.europesays.com — ‘Not a reason to give up’: Canada warms twice as fast as ...
   confidence 85%
4. 49d ago

   UN Reports Global Warming Will Exceed 1.5-Degree Limit

   The United Nations reports that global warming will exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius limit. A new UN climate goal focuses on a cycle of overshoot, peak, and decline to eventually bring temperatures back below the danger zone. While the report indicates the 1.5-degree threshold is likely to be surpassed, it provides a map for returning to safer levels. This shift in strategy acknowledges that current warming trends make the previous limit unattainable in the short term, necessitating a plan for managing the overshoot period.

   Why it matters

   The 1.5-degree Celsius limit was a primary target for international climate agreements to avoid the most severe impacts of global warming. Exceeding this threshold increases the risk of irreversible environmental damage. The UN's updated approach reflects the reality of current emissions trajectories.

   What is confirmed

   • The UN states global warming will exceed the 1.5-degree limit.
   • The UN has established a new climate goal described as overshoot, peak, decline.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Carbon capture technology will not provide a timely solution to the climate crisis.
   • Electric vehicles face a 200-year road to success.

   What to watch next

   • Evidence of global temperatures peaking and beginning to decline
   • Specific policy implementations of the overshoot and decline strategy
   Sources used for this update (12)

   1. pbs.org — Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree limit, UN says in report that maps path back below danger zone
   2. Space — We're about to exceed 1.5-degree global warming limit, according to the UN
   3. The New Republic — Carbon Capture Won’t Save Us Anytime Soon
   4. openDemocracy — Preparing for a world beyond 1.5°C
   5. Al Jazeera — ‘Limit overshoot, peak, decline’: A new global goal for climate change?
   6. Deccan Herald — Warming peaks: Near and inevitable
   7. The Conversation — Yes, passing 1.5 C of global warming is cause for alarm, but not despair
   8. Carbon Brief — DeBriefed 4 September 2026: Earth to ‘overshoot’ 1.5C | Nepal ‘climate compensation’ calls | EVs’ 200-year road to success
   9. Legal Planet — Good News from Turkmenistan! Bad News from the UN
   10. peoplesworld.org — UN climate report raises question: Is Earth already doomed?
   11. The World Economic Forum — UN says 'overshoot, peak, decline' is new climate goal – and other nature and climate news
   12. Futura, le média qui explore le monde — Are we past the point of no return for saving the planet?
   confidence 90%