Who are the economic winners and losers of the US-Israel war on Iran?

Live updates

1. 10d ago

   Global Food Prices Hit Four-Year High Amid Iran Conflict

   The six-month US-Israel war with Iran is driving a global economic divide. While investors profit, the UN reports a food price index rise to a four-year high fueled by conflict and extreme weather. Defense contractors face new vulnerabilities as China restricts 12 minerals essential for next-generation laser weapons, potentially threatening Raytheon's $289 billion backlog. US Central Command confirmed strikes on three Iranian oil tankers, further destabilizing energy supplies and redrawing the global energy map. These combined pressures increase costs for consumers while creating strategic bottlenecks in military production.

   Why it matters

   The conflict has shifted from active combat to a stalled state with no clear peace path. Economic impacts now extend beyond direct war costs to include global supply chain disruptions and resource nationalism. The intersection of military goals and mineral dependencies creates a new layer of risk for Western defense industries.

   What is confirmed

   • The UN food price index has reached a four-year high due to war and extreme weather.
   • US Central Command reported strikes on three Iranian oil tankers.
   • The US-Israel war with Iran has lasted six months.

   Still unconfirmed

   • China restricted 12 minerals needed by defense contractors for laser weapons.
   • Raytheon faces a supply chain risk regarding its $289 billion backlog.
   • The war is redrawing the global energy map and may impact the environment.

   What to watch next

   • Updates on the availability of the 12 restricted minerals from China
   • Further UN reports on global food price volatility
   • Official statements on the impact of tanker strikes on global fuel costs
   Sources used for this update (5)

   1. www.aljazeera.com — Conflicts and extreme weather pushing global food prices higher, warns UN
   2. www.equitypandit.com — Iran War Divides Global Economy Into Winners and Losers
   3. 247wallst.com — ‘Some of These Lasers Were the Size of Buildings’: Now They Need 12 Minerals China Cut Off
   4. www.deccanchronicle.com — How The War in Iran is Redrawing The Global Energy Map
   5. news.lee.net — US strikes three Iranian oil tankers, Central Command says
   confidence 80%
2. 12d ago

   US-Israel War on Iran Exacts Uneven Economic Toll at Six Months

   Six months into the military campaign against Iran, the ongoing conflict is creating a stark economic divide between financial investors and everyday consumers. While investors and members of the Trump family are profiting amid the hostilities, regular consumers face higher costs and an uneven financial toll. Meanwhile, the battered Iranian regime remains firmly entrenched and leaders signal zero tolerance for internal dissent, leaving President Trump facing limited options as the war remains stalled between active combat and genuine peace.

   Why it matters

   The conflict has surpassed the half-year mark after beginning with promises of a short campaign from the White House. The United States continues to rely on military strikes and economic pressure against an intractable adversary, though a domestic power struggle within Iran could ultimately dictate the timeline of the war. The protracted nature of the hostilities highlights deep political divisions among Iranian Americans regarding the future of the nation.

   What is confirmed

   • The US-Israel war on Iran has reached the six-month mark.
   • The conflict has exacted an uneven economic toll that benefits investors while forcing consumers to pay.
   • The Trump family is among the financial winners six months into the war.
   • Iran's battered regime remains entrenched as leaders defy the United States and show no tolerance for dissent.

   Still unconfirmed

   • President Trump is growing desperate and running out of strategic options to end the intractable conflict.

   What to watch next

   • Developments in the internal power struggle within Iran that could decide when the war ends.
   • Any shifts in White House strategy or additional military missions announced by the administration.
   Sources used for this update (32)

   1. The Washington Post — Trump promised a short Iran war. Six months later, he has few good options.
   2. The New York Times — Why Many Iranians Are Losing Hope After Six Months of War
   3. NPR — After 6 months of war, Iran's battered regime remains entrenched
   4. The New York Times — For Trump, the Iran War Is Stuck Between Combat and Genuine Peace
   5. Axios — Trump's evolving endgame for the Iran war, in 6 quotes
   6. CNN — Six months into the Iran war, Iranian Americans remain divided over what comes next
   7. AP News — 6 months on, Iran’s leaders are defying the US and signaling no tolerance for dissent
   8. PBS — 6 months in, Iran's leaders are defying the U.S. and signaling no tolerance for dissent
   9. 13wham.com — People share their experiences during U.S.-Iran conflict as conflict enters sixth month
   10. CNN — A power struggle in Iran could decide when Trump’s war ends
   11. AP News — Investors prosper and consumers pay as the Iran war exacts an uneven economic toll 6 months in
   12. Al Jazeera — How has life changed for Iranians six months into the war?
   confidence 95%