Will the Fed raise interest rates this month? A Kevin Warsh speech could offer clues

Live updates

1. 1h ago

   Fed Chair Kevin Warsh provides no rate guidance during Bangkok speech

   Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal whether the Fed will raise interest rates in October during a fireside chat with the IMF in Bangkok on October 16. Despite recent hot inflation data and two inflation reports this week suggesting a hike could happen sooner than expected, Warsh remained tight-lipped on policy. While traders interpreted his silence as a sign that rates will hold steady this month, investors remain uncertain due to Warsh's concern about inflation and his rejection of traditional communication practices.

   Why it matters

   The Federal Reserve is under pressure to address returning inflation, which has already caused a sharp decline in U.S. stocks. Market volatility increased after CPI data caught investors off guard. Central banks globally are currently engaged in synchronous tightening to combat these inflationary pressures.

   What is confirmed

   • Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at an IMF fireside chat in Bangkok at 10:30am on October 16.
   • Kevin Warsh did not provide a signal or guidance regarding interest rate moves for October.
   • Two inflation reports were released this week.
   • Warsh noted a synchronous tightening by central banks to fight inflation.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Traders believe the Fed will hold rates steady this month based on Warsh's silence.
   • Waller is set to speak again following a sharp decline in U.S. stocks.

   What to watch next

   • The Federal Reserve's official interest rate decision for October
   • Further public comments from Fed official Waller regarding rate hike risks
   Sources used for this update (15)

   1. NBC News — Will the Fed raise interest rates this month? A Kevin Warsh speech could offer clues
   2. WSJ — Warsh Speech, Schwab Earnings: What to Watch the Rest of the Week
   3. Bloomberg.com — Fed’s Warsh to Get Final Word in Bangkok as Inflation Roars Back
   4. CNBC — CCTV Script 15/10/26
   5. 富途牛牛 — Just as markets were caught off guard by the CPI data, Waller is set to speak again: the risk of further interest rate hikes comes under renewed scrutiny after the sharp decline in U.S. stocks.
   6. investingLive — Economic and event calendar in Asia Friday, October 16, 2026 - Federal Reserve Chair Warsh speaking
   7. www.nbcnews.com — Will the Fed raise interest rates this month? A Kevin Warsh speech could offer clues
   8. Nation Thailand — Fed chair to join IMF’s “Managing Director’s Fireside Chat with Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh” in Bangkok at 10.30am on October 16
   9. investingLive — Warsh speaks in Bangkok after hot CPI: is a second Fed hike coming in October?
   10. Reuters — Fed's Warsh gives no hint on October policy decision
   11. WSJ — Warsh Avoids Signal on October Rate Move
   12. www.cnbc.com — Fed's Warsh praises global monetary 'tightening' with 'no ...
   confidence 95%