Will US inflation data persuade the Fed to raise rates this month?

Live updates

1. 2d ago

   Fed rate decision hinges on producer and consumer price reports

   Federal Reserve policymakers will rely on upcoming producer and consumer price reports to decide if interest rates will rise this month. Rising WTI crude oil prices, which hit a 3.5-month high, have boosted inflation expectations and may pressure the Fed to act. This comes as global bond markets face turbulence and conflict in Iran adds economic pressure. Market analysts remain divided on whether a hike will occur on September 16, while UBS expects two more increases before the end of 2026.

   Why it matters

   The Fed is balancing a strong jobs report against warnings from some officials to avoid moving too quickly. Current volatility in T-note yields and the dollar index reflects investor uncertainty. The decision impacts borrowing costs across the US economy.

   What is confirmed

   • WTI crude oil reached a 3.5-month high.
   • The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates on September 16.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The dollar index dropped to a 2.5-week low due to an upcoming US Treasury buyback of long-term Treasuries.

   What to watch next

   • Release of producer and consumer price reports
   • Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 16
   Sources used for this update (5)

   1. www.cnbc.com — Why the Fed's interest rate call could come down to a few hundredths of a percentage point
   2. finance.yahoo.com — Dollar Slips Before the Treasury’s Buyback Operation
   3. finance.yahoo.com — Dollar Gains as Crude Oil Prices and T-Note Yields Surge
   4. finance.yahoo.com — Dollar Supported by Rising Crude Prices and T-Note Yields
   5. www.theguardian.com — Surging inflation puts interest rates back in focus as policymakers meet in Japan, US and UK
   confidence 85%
2. 8d ago

   Federal Reserve Rate Decision Hinges on Upcoming Inflation Data

   The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates this month depends on whether upcoming inflation data is high. While a strong jobs report has led some Wall Street analysts to argue that hikes are necessary, some Fed officials are advising against moving too quickly. Market analysts are divided on the outcome, with some suggesting a rate hike could occur on September 16. UBS has forecasted two rate hikes for the remainder of 2026 following the positive employment data.

   Why it matters

   Interest rate adjustments are the primary tool the Fed uses to control inflation and economic growth. A rate hike typically aims to cool an overheating economy but can trigger initial stock market volatility. The current tension stems from conflicting signals between a strong labor market and inflation targets.

   What is confirmed

   • The Federal Reserve's rate decision remains dependent on inflation data.
   • Internal disagreement exists among Fed officials regarding the pace of potential rate hikes.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Wall Street analysts believe the Fed needs to hike rates following a blowout jobs report.

   What to watch next

   • Release of US inflation data for the current period
   • Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 16
   Sources used for this update (9)

   1. Bloomberg.com — Fed Rate Decision Still Hangs on Inflation After Jobs Report
   2. CNBC — CNBC Daily Open: Washington's house is divided over interest rates
   3. Axios — Not so fast on rate hikes, some Fed officials say
   4. Barron's — A Fed Rate Hike Depends on Hot Inflation. Don’t Count on Either.Economy Column
   5. Financial Times — Will US inflation data persuade the Fed to raise rates this month?
   6. Yahoo Finance — 'They're going to need to hike rates': Wall Street weighs in on Fed's next policy decision after blowout jobs report
   7. Currently.com — A Fed Rate Hike May Be in the Cards on Sept. 16, and 36 Years of History Says the Stock Market Won't Be Happy (at Least Initially)
   8. Bloomberg.com — The Fed’s ‘Family Fight’ Spills Into the Open Before Key Rate Decision
   9. money.usnews.com — UBS Forecasts Two US Fed Rate Hikes in 2026 After Strong Jobs Report
   confidence 80%