When my little brother was in his late teens, he crossed the Vermont moat and joined me for spring training in Arizona. We finally head to Las Vegas for some exhibition games. As we drove down The Strip for the first time, bathed in its bright, twinkling lights, he spoke of the place in awe, reverence, predicting many future trips to the casinos.
An hour later, he collapsed in front of a slot machine, his $ 200 travel allowance completely depleted. I laughed without a hint of empathy, pointed to all the neon and asked him, in so many words: “Sherlock, who do you think pays for all that? You!”
In other words: always respect the people who set the odds.
But every year when baseball team win totals over / under odds come out, I like to examine and identify perceived weaknesses.
This is what I see in it William Hill’s plus / minus probability set: