How bonds, Merval and country risk are listed today January 13

The Merval managed to reverse the negative trend with which the wheel started and advanced 3.49%, with which it registered a new all-time high in pesos, settling at 242,693.61 points and accumulated eight consecutive rounds in green. Meanwhile, in hard currency it stands at 695 units and set a new record in dollars since August 12, 2019. In the external market, ADRs of Argentine companies listed abroad marked increases of up to 6.8%, led by YPF, with the same trend as the main US stocks.

In the fixed income segment, the sovereign dollar bonds under foreign legislation they operated with falls of up to 3.61%, led by the Global 35, while the titles in pesos with CER adjustment marked increases of up to 0.64%, where the TX24 stood out.

Beyond the good performance of Argentine assets in recent sessions, yesterday’s inflation data worried investors ahead of the electoral year that Argentina will have in 2023, mainly because core inflation (the indicator that best reflects the trend inflation rate) accelerated to 5.3% (85.8% annualized) in December from the previous 4.8%.

As stated in the December REM, the market does not believe that the moderation in inflation is sustainable. Analysts surveyed by the BCRA expect inflation of 98.4% for 2023. However, from the Palacio de Hacienda they expect inflation to continue slowing down in the coming months and that inflation will oscillate around 60%. The next few months will be crucial to know if it is convenient to bet on the carry trade or to dollarize the portfolio.

What happens in the markets of the world

Wall Street closed in the green and managed to recover from a weak startafter the consumer confidence report from the University of Michigan was better than estimated and despite the fact that the earnings reports presented today by the main banks in the United States anticipated a recession.

The University of Michigan consumer confidence survey for January rose to a nine-month high of 64.6 from 59.7 last month. Also, the expectations index rose to 62.0 from 59.9 last month.

The news gave a more upbeat outlook after a dovish tone from America’s biggest banks, which took center stage to kick off fourth-quarter earnings season and said they were taking steps to prepare for a recession in the United States.

JP Morgan posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, however, they expect this year to be a mild recession. JP Morgan said earnings for the three months ending in December stood at $11.1 billion, or $3.57 per share, up 7.2% from the same period last year.

Bank of America reported fourth-quarter earnings that showed the bank’s revenue benefited from higher interest rates and reported revenue of $24.5 billion for the quarter, beating estimates of $24.2 billion. Wells Fargo also posted quarterly earnings that beat expectations, posting fourth-quarter earnings of 67 cents per share on revenue of $19.7 billion, compared with earnings a year ago of $1.38 per share on revenue of $20.9 billion.

Fourth quarter earnings for BlackRock fell 23%, while the bank reported net income of $1.26 billion in the same period a year earlier. Bank stocks fell across the board on Friday morning. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, the benchmark index for the US banking sector, rose nearly 0.70%.

Wall Street

Wall Street’s main indices traded higher. Thus, the S&P 500 advanced 0.40%; the industrialist Dow Jones added 0.33%; and the technological Nasdaq gained 0.71%.

Merval

The Merval recorded a gain of 3.49%. Thus, the rises of the leading shares were registered by YPF (9.21%); Securities Financial Group (6.98%); and Aluar (5.86%).

ADRs

Argentine stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange operated with a majority of greens led by YPF (6.8%); Free Market (5.7%); and Take off (3.2%).

bonds

Sovereign bonds in dollars under foreign legislation operated with falls of up to 3.61%, led by the Global 35, while titles in pesos with CER adjustment marked increases of up to 0.64%, where the TX24 stood out.

Risk country

The country risk is located around 1,980 basis points.