40% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they would vote for President Donald Trump if he ran in the 2024 Republican primaries, according to a poll by POLITICO/Morning Consult revealed on Wednesday.
It is a significant drop in the approval of the president after the takeover of the United States Capitol by Trump supporters. In November, by contrast, 53% of groups surveyed said they would support a race in 2024.
But the big question that remains is whether impeachment alone could prevent Trump’s candidacy in four years, and the answer is ambiguous.
“The impeachment, removal from office and disqualification (of Trump) to occupy and enjoy any position of honor, trust or profit in the United States is justified,” reads the new impeachment article written by the Democrats of the House against Trump for his alleged role in inciting the insurrection on January 6.
First, as detailed by NBC NEWS, Trump should be found guilty at impeachment. That would require 67 senators to vote to convict him. If all Democrats vote together, that would mean 17 Republicans would have to vote to convict him as well. That number assumes the vote occurs after Georgia’s two new Democratic senators are sworn in.
How likely is it? In Trump’s impeachment trial in early 2020 only one Republican senator voted to convict him of abuse of power, and he was acquitted. However, this scenario could change this time, because several Republican congressmen would vote in favor of removing Trump.
If Senate Democrats manage to get those votes and convict Trump, there is some ambiguity about the separate vote that could disqualify him from public office. The Constitution does not prescribe a two-thirds majority vote for that, and in the past, the Senate has used a simple majority for disqualification. (The Senate has only disqualified three people from future office, and all three were federal judges.)
He indicated that there should be no vandalism or transgression of the law, noting that it is not what he represents.
The Supreme Court has never ruled on whether a two-thirds majority vote is required for disqualification. If the Senate were to vote to disqualify a president from a future office with a simple majority, it would be unprecedented and could spark a battle in the courts.
Under the guidelines of the U.S. Constitution and federal law experts, the Senate would have to hold two separate votes to legally bar Trump from assuming the presidency in four years.
In short, the first Senate vote would require at least a two-thirds majority of sitting senators of all political affiliations to convict and remove Trump on the latest House impeachment charge inciting an insurrection. That first vote to impeach him must be successful before a second vote can be had in the Senate to decide whether Trump should be removed from public office in the future.
It is the first time in history that an American president has carried out two processes for his impeachment. To see more from Telemundo, visit now.telemundo.com
This time, House Democrats claim that the president meets the specification in Section 4 of Article II of the Constitution for Trump to be removed from office.
Two landmark precedents, both involving federal judges, make clear that only a simple Senate majority is needed to disqualify Trump from future office. Legal experts estimate that this lower standard means that the Democrats, who will take control of the Senate in late January, have a realistic chance of preventing Trump from running for president in 2024, a possibility they have discussed.
One complication with that plan, however, is that, per Senate precedent, a vote on disqualification only takes place after a vote on whether to convict and remove from office.