November 2, 2022 10:45 pm
English championship (Championship), round 19
November 2 at 22:45 (Moscow time) at the stadium “St. Andrews” in the match of the championship of England (Championship) will meet Birmingham and Millwall. You will find the prediction of the exact score of the game from Betting Tools specialists below. There is no clear favorite in this match – bets on the home win are accepted with a coefficient of 2.54, and on the away win – with a quote of 2.76. Bets on a draw are accepted with a coefficient of 3.22. Bookmakers bet on the low performance of the meeting: bets on the total of less than 2.5 goals are accepted with odds of 1.70. Bets on total over 2.5 goals are accepted with a quote of 2.10.
Birmingham – Millwall. Key facts about the match
- Birmingham in the last match in the championship of England (Championship) on October 28 played against QPR. The match ended with a score of 2:0 in his favor. In the previous five meetings of the tournament, Birmingham won three victories, having suffered only one defeat.
- Millwall in their last match in the championship of England (Championship) on 29 October played with Huddersfield. The match ended with a score of 0:1 not in his favor. In the previous five meetings of the tournament, Millwall won four times, while only one match ended in defeat.
- The last head-to-head match between Birmingham and Millwall in the Premier League (Championship) took place on 23 April 2022 and ended in a 2-2 draw. Millwall are unbeaten in seven straight matches – three wins and four draws.
- In defense, both teams perform better than in attack (defense rating of the hosts and guests is 1118 and 1109, and the attack rating is 902 and 939).
- The ratio of the attack rating of the hosts and the defense rating of the guests is 0.81. Statistically, the expected number of goals for an attacking team with this ratio is 1.17.
- The ratio of the attack rating of the guests and the defense rating of the home team is 0.84. With this ratio, the average expected number of goals per match for an attacking team is 1.17.
- In the last five matches with the participation of Birmingham, bets on the victory of Lee Boyer’s wards were profitable (+55.0%).
- In the last five matches with the participation of Millwall, it was profitable to bet on the victory of Gary Rowett’s wards (+117.0%) and on the total of over 2.5 goals (+27.0%).
Birmingham – Millwall. Statistics Predictions
total under 2.5 goals (Under 2.5)
The predictions for the match were generated using machine learning: the predictive model was trained on a large sample of matches played and now, based on the received data, it generates predictions for upcoming matches, taking into account the input parameters. One of the key factors for forecasting is the ratio of teams’ attack and defense ratings.
Estimated odds for the match Birmingham – Millwall
A score greater than 1 means that the coefficient is underestimated and the bet is mathematically profitable. If the score is less than 1, the coefficient is overestimated and the bet is mathematically unprofitable. Predictions for the match are formed taking into account the estimates of the coefficients, but this is not a decisive factor. For this reason, sometimes a prediction can be made on the outcome, the coefficient of which is lower than 1.
Profitability of bets on team matches:
Bets on TM 2.5
Bets on TV 2.5
Note: Bookmaker points – the number of points that a team should have scored based on bookmaker odds in the last five matches (or less if the team does not have five odds matches). Calculation according to the formula: 3/set for a win + 1/set for a draw. Actual points – the actual number of points that a team has scored in the last five matches (3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw).
Note: the average statistics of teams for the last 5 matches of the tournament against all opponents (for the “All Opponents” tab) and against opponents of the same level as the current one based on betting odds (for the “Opponents of the same level” tab) is indicated.
Birmingham. Advantages over the opponent in statistics: a higher percentage of shots from the penalty area (70.8% vs. 59.7%); higher percentage of ball possession (43.6 vs. 43.2); higher passing accuracy (67.8 vs. 65.0); more corners per match (5.0 vs. 3.0).
Millwall. Advantages over the opponent in statistics: more shots on goal (12.4 vs. 9.6); higher accuracy of shots on goal (32.3% vs. 31.2%); higher percentage of long shots (40.3% vs. 29.2%); fewer missed shots (9.6 vs. 11.2); higher percentage of shots blocked (37.5% vs. 25.0%); fewer fouls per match (10.6 vs. 14.8).
Favorite / Outsider. How will the game go?
Based on the current odds for the winner of the match, the teams belong to class B. In the last 50 matches of the tournament between opponents of this class, 20% of the matches ended in a draw, and in the remaining matches one of the teams won.
Participant of the match of equal teams. The most likely outcome is a draw. Odds for winning in the range of 2.40 – 2.95.
Birmingham ( B )
Explanation of the predicted course of the game between the teams of Birmingham and Millwall: Based on the available statistics of the history of meetings that are similar in class of teams, it was concluded that the percentage probability of winning in regular time Birmingham is 40%. The team’s chances of winning are 40%. The probability of a draw is 20%.