MIAMI – We continue to monitor two areas of potential development in the tropics this morning, but neither is a concern for South Florida at this time.
Invest 94L in the far eastern Atlantic has the highest chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next five days. The disturbance took advantage of more favorable conditions during the overnight hours to shake off some dry mid-level air and re-trigger thunderstorms closer to its nascent center of circulation. The center of 94L this morning is located on the northeast side of the main storm area, but there are also thunderstorms on its eastern flank, indicating an increase in overall organization.
Invest 94L is running west at nearly 20 mph and this general path is expected to continue through the work week. The environment ahead is largely favorable for development, especially given the time of year, and 94L should strengthen into Tropical Depression Two or Tropical Storm Bonnie before reaching the Windward Islands late Tuesday into Wednesday. .
Beyond the middle of the week, the model’s orientation is generally well in line with the maintenance of a strong ridge of high pressure north of 94L, which will keep the developing storm on a very southerly course. south of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands into Central America by the end of the week. Although it is still five or six days away from reaching the western Caribbean, for now it seems unlikely to be a concern for South Florida.
Aside from 94L, an area of low pressure in the northwestern Gulf is being monitored for a low chance of gradual development this week. Regardless of formation, this system is expected to move west toward the Texas coast and away from Florida.
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