The weekly future of the Stock Market, in the hands of inflation in the US and China

The most notable events for the stock markets in the week that begins tomorrow are the publication of inflation for December in the US, which is expected to moderate its growth, and the first results of the season, which will begin on Friday with the large US banks.

At the beginning of the week, the most relevant data for investors will come from Europe, where the European Commission will publish the investor confidence index (Sentix) for the month of January and the German statistics office will publish the country’s industrial production in November.

The next day, a meeting of central banks is held in Europe, similar to the one that takes place every August in Jackson Hole (USA) and from which “new measures” can emerge or give clues about “what the central banks for the monetary policy of the coming months”, indicates to EFE the partner and director of investments of Abante, Angel Olea.

In the US, retail trade sales will be published in November, one more piece of information on the evolution of consumption in a month marked by “Black Friday” discounts.

On Thursday it will be the turn of the December CPIs for China and the US. Although prices have also risen in China in the last year, for the markets the most relevant data is the United States due to its influence on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Analysts expect a moderation from 7.1% in November to 6.7%, which would already mean “a clear downward trend in inflation, as we have seen this week in Europe,” explains Olea.

The fall in prices is key for the Fed to “begin to feel more comfortable” in the balance that its monetary policy must have when it comes to containing prices while harming economic growth as little as possible, he adds.

On Friday, China will release its trade balance, an indicator of the progress of the economy due to the role of the Asian giant, Spain, as a major world exporter, the final CPI data for December (5.8% according to the leading indicator); and Eurostat, the industrial production of the euro area.

In the US, in addition to the consumer confidence of the University of Michigan, the stock markets will receive the first results of the year 2022 of the season, with the publication of the accounts of JP Morgan, Citi, Bank of America and Wells Fargo.

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