Chicago, Ill. – The first power in the world and the most important neighbor of Mexico will have a dynamic year in all aspects of public policy. Here’s a breakdown of what’s to come in 2023.
Economy. After vigorous economic growth that far outweighed the losses during the coronavirus pandemic, Covid-19, the United States is moving towards a recession. According to a survey carried out among economists, it is believed that there is a 64 percent probability that this nation will have negative growth rates. However, it is believed that the contraction will be moderate and, in the case of implementing measures that revive activity when the time comes, it will not be long either.
The recession is caused by the incessant increases in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation. Despite perceptible progress, the United States is still far from containing the price escalation that, even in part, is derived from billionaires and, in my opinion, excessive government stimulus, granted by the Covid-19. In short, less economic activity but there will be no financial catastrophe.
Manufacturing and Nearshoring. This moment of economic pause will help deepen US economic protectionism to move as much manufacturing production to this country as possible. The economic decoupling between the United States and China will continue. President Joe Biden He said he expects this year to be one with sales of “what’s made in America.” This implies moving the productive chains of strategic inputs (such as computer chips and semiconductors, among other technologies that will drive the industries of the future,) within the United States or to stable and friendly countries.
This incredible movement of capital and manufacturing capacity that we are experiencing will benefit America’s trading partners and allies. The opportunity represents the entrance to the future of digitalization, the new generation of transportation options and the new forms of energy generation. Those who take advantage of these circumstances will bring progress to their people, but those who don’t will continue with rancid talk of imperialism to hide their inability.
Policy Foreign and Geostrategy. The United States will continue to stand with Ukraine to defend its people and to prove that no bully would-be tyrant will succeed if he invades a sovereign nation. At the same time, you must open the door for the Putin’s Russia have a “dignified exit” from the conflict that ends the war and recovers the stability of gas, oil and grain prices, so affected by the conflict.
china, the Strategic Rival. The economic divorce with China will continue to deepen the differences with that nation. Biden and his administration will continue to be emphatic that an invasion of Taiwan will meet with a strong US response. The first power will continue to strengthen relations with its allies in Asia and Europe that they call for joint action to defend freedoms, including the economic one. However, the confrontation with China will not end until it is clear which political-economic model best serves societies: autocracies or democracies.
Internal Policy. Internally, we will see stagnation with the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives. The Biden agenda will be limited and in some cases an attempt will be made to cut previous victories. But the truth is that the Republican paralysis that reduces governability will be an opportunity for scandal and political theater on the way to the presidential election. On this last point, Biden may decide to run again, which I think is a mistake, as new leadership must rise to positions of power.