China would probably fail in an attempt to invade taiwan and USA came to defend the island, said a group of US experts on Monday, although the conflict would imply heavy losses for the forces of the North American country.
The military experts, assembled for the war simulation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stressed that each party directly involved in a conflict of this magnitude – the United States, China, Taiwan, Japan – would suffer “enormous” losses.
“In most cases it is unlikely that China will succeed and achieve its operational objectives” or manage to “occupy Taipei”, the capital of Taiwan, concluded Eric Heginbotham, a security expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
The simulation tested 24 different scenarios, each involving attempts by China to forcibly seize Taiwan by 2026.
According to projections, without US aid the island – which has an autonomous government, but which China claims as part of its territory – would fall in a maximum of three months, amid bombings and land invasions.
However, “the cost of the war would be high for everyone involved, and certainly for the United States,” Heginbotham added.
Washington diplomatically recognizes Beijing but maintains de facto relations with Taiwan and supports the island’s right to decide its own future.