Trudeau resigns, setting the stage for Canada‘s political shift
In a surprise move, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on Monday, stepping down not only as Prime Minister but also as the leader of the Liberal Party. This decision has set the political stage for the country, as his party begins the task of finding a new leader and government head—a challenging job given that Trudeau has reshaped the Liberal Party around his charismatic leadership, without grooming a clear successor.
To ensure a smooth transition process, Canada’s Parliament has been adjourned until March 24. Trudeau assumed the Liberal Party helm in 2013, when political power had been in opposition for eight years. He successfully led them to victory in the 2015 election and has remained Canada’s Prime Minister since, although his government was a minority one after the 2019 elections.
By mid-2022, the main opposition party, the Conservative Party, had surpassed the governing Liberals in polls for the first time. Since then, the gap has widened, with Conservatives now enjoying a nearly 25-point lead—45% compared to Liberals’ 20%. The main cause for public discontent is the rapid rise in the cost of living, particularly food and housing prices, coupled with some reputational missteps during Trudeau’s tenure.
The shadow of former U.S. President Donald Trump has also loomed over Trudeau’s political fortunes. Under Trump, Canada became a target of harsh verbal barbs, including a jibe that it should become the 51st U.S. state. Trump’s threat of hefty import tariffs also posed potential economic risks for Canada.
Trudeau’s efforts to stabilize relations with Trump, including personal meetings, have been met with opposition within his own government. Trudeau’s Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned unexpectedly in December, reportedly disagreeing with Trudeau’s approach to handling relations with the powerful southern neighbor.
"Trudeau’s departure comes as no surprise to political observers in Canada," said [Expert’s Name], a political analyst at [Institution Name]. "The Liberal Party is now in a race against time to find a new leader who canfill Trudeau’s shoes and steer the party through the next election."
A ‘significant mistake’—economic recovery through immigration
Canada’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 pandemic has been slow worldwide. One of the strategies Trudeau’s government employed to stimulate growth was increasing immigration. However, as [Expert’s Name], a journalist at Latvia Radio, reports, this move has not been without criticism.
"Trudeau did a lot to increase the workforce, including welcoming more immigrants," Ķezberis said. "But the rising cost of living has made life tough for many, even those working multiple jobs. People are looking for change, and now Trump threatens to impose the same tariffs on Canada as he did on Mexico, which would be devastating for Canada’s export-heavy economy."
Ķezberis believes that the next Canadian Prime Minister is likely to be Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who has been actively courting support from the incoming U.S. President. "Poilievre is using rhetoric like ‘Canada First’ and ‘immigration control,’" Ķezberis said. "Elon Musk has even endorsed him on his social media platform ‘X’."
Canada must change course
Political scientist [Expert’s Name] emphasizes the need for Canada to re-evaluate its approach to border control with the U.S. "Border control is too lax, allowing contraband and undocumented immigrants to pour in," Kudors said. "We also need to reassess our economic policies, which have failed to satisfy many Canadians."
Trudeau’s economic policies, Kudors noted, have left fiscal conservatives displeased. "His decision to give CAD 250 (EUR 169) to each family with incomes under CAD 150,000 (EUR 101,200) was a fiscal burden on the country," Kudors added.
The COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns also left many Canadians feeling constrained. Kudors believes that Poilievre, if elected, may adopt a leadership style similar to Argentina’s President Javier Milei, who has implemented conservative fiscal policies leading to economic growth.
Conservatives favoured to win
With the current poll numbers favoring the Conservatives, it’s likely that they will form the next government—possibly even a majority government. [Expert’s Name], a political commentator at Latvia Radio, agrees. However, he also notes the importance of the new government’s approach to NATO, particularly regarding contributing more to defense spending, given Canada’s proximity to the U.S.
"Canada could benefit from a dialogue with the U.S. about defense," Liniņš said. "Kanadans have been relatively generous with their money, but when it comes to defense spending, they’re one of the stingiest in NATO."
As Trudeau leaves the stage, Canada braces for a shift in political power—one that may see a more conservative approach to governance take hold. With the next election expected in fall 2023, the political landscape is set to evolve, leaving many wondered what the future holds for Canada.