The Foldable Smartphone Market: A New Chapter Begins
The foldable smartphone market is poised for a significant shift, moving beyond a cyclical recovery and entering a phase of more sustainable expansion starting in 2026. Analysts at Counterpoint are optimistic, citing advancements in technology and improved product execution as key drivers.
From Niche to Mainstream: The Rise of Book-Style Foldables
After a period of cautious releases and inventory normalization, manufacturers are preparing a more aggressive push into the foldable segment. A significant trend is the growing popularity of book-style foldable devices – those that fold like a book – currently accounting for 52% of global foldable sales. Counterpoint predicts this share will increase to 65% in the coming year.
This shift isn’t just about form factor. Improvements in hardware are changing consumer perception. Foldable phones are increasingly seen not as technological novelties, but as devices offering genuine productivity benefits.
Apple’s Entry: A Catalyst for Growth
A pivotal moment for the foldable market is anticipated with the launch of Apple’s first foldable iPhone this year. The arrival of a major player like Apple is expected to significantly boost global foldable sales.
Did you understand? The entrance of Apple into any new smartphone category typically accelerates adoption and drives innovation across the industry.
Android Response: Wider Screens and Increased Competition
In response to Apple’s anticipated move, Android manufacturers are reportedly preparing wider, book-style foldables to compete directly. Samsung is strengthening its foldable lineup and developing wider variants, while Honor and Oppo are also rumored to be working on similar devices.
Broader Smartphone Market Trends: Challenges and Opportunities
While the foldable market looks promising, the overall smartphone market faces headwinds. Global smartphone shipments in 2026 are projected to decline by 2.1% due to rising memory costs. This has led to a downward revision of 2.6% in Counterpoint’s 2026 shipment forecast, with Chinese OEMs like HONOR, OPPO, and vivo experiencing the largest adjustments.
Despite these challenges, revenue growth is expected to remain strong, driven by premiumization and the adoption of technologies like AI. The shift to 2nm process nodes is also contributing to this revenue increase, even as shipments decline.
Pro Tip: Consumers may find themselves paying more for smartphones in 2026, but the increased performance and features could justify the higher price point.
Impact of Memory Costs and SoC Developments
Rising memory prices are particularly impacting smartphones priced below $150. Foundries are prioritizing high-margin HBM production for data centers, creating supply constraints and increasing component costs. However, the smartphone SoC market is expected to see revenue growth despite a projected 7% decline in shipments. Here’s due to the ongoing trend of premiumization and the increasing demand for higher-performance devices.
FAQ
Q: What is driving the growth of foldable phones?
A: Advancements in technology, improved product quality, and increasing consumer demand for productivity-enhancing features are driving growth.
Q: Will smartphone prices increase in 2026?
A: Yes, Counterpoint Research predicts that smartphone prices will rise, with average selling prices potentially increasing by as much as 6.9% due to rising memory costs.
Q: What type of foldable phone is becoming more popular?
A: Book-style foldables, which fold like a book, are gaining popularity and are expected to account for 65% of foldable sales this year.
Q: How will Apple’s entry affect the foldable market?
A: Apple’s launch of a foldable iPhone is expected to significantly boost global foldable sales and accelerate market adoption.
Explore more insights into the latest smartphone trends on Counterpoint Research’s website. Share your thoughts on the future of foldable phones in the comments below!