According to reports, Matthew Michie, head of credit strategy at investment bank UBS, diagnosed in a report released on the 11th that there is a high possibility that at least tens of billions of dollars worth of corporate loans will become non-performing within the year as software and data service companies owned by private equity funds are pressured by AI threats.
Michie presented a basic forecast that insolvencies in the amount of $75 billion to $120 billion would occur by the end of this year in leveraged loans and private loans.
A leveraged loan refers to funds raised in the form of a loan by a company with a high debt ratio or low credit rating.
Analyst Micro said that the latest models of AI companies such as Antropic have advanced expectations for the advent of disruptive innovation, adding, “The market was slow to react because it did not expect disruptive innovation to proceed so quickly.”
“Investors need to recalibrate their overall assessment of credit risk in relation to the risk of disruptive innovation, because this is not an issue that will happen in 2027 or 2028,” he said.
Following the recent plunge in software industry stock prices amid speculation that AI tools will take over the role of professional enterprise software, concerns appear to be spreading to other industries.
As the weakness in the software industry continues, companies in data services, asset management services, real estate services, and logistics simultaneously suffered a blow to their stock prices.
The micro analyst warned that there is a risk that loan defaults will worsen compared to the basic scenario and surge to twice the basic estimate, and that in this case, “a credit crunch will occur in the loan market as a chain effect.”
Meanwhile, it was also pointed out that the risk exposure of the private loan market for the software industry may be greater than previously known.
On the New York Stock Exchange, major private equity loan-related investment companies have seen their stock prices decline over the past month.
Bloomberg News analyzed the disclosures of business growth collective investment vehicles (BDCs) managed by seven major private loan investment companies, including Sixth Street, Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, Blackstone, and Blue Owl Capital, and found that at least 250 investments that could be considered in the software industry were not classified as software loans.
Bloomberg noted that companies widely viewed as software companies are often categorized as different industries in private lending, and that “this practice raises new questions about their actual exposure to the software sector as the threat of AI shakes markets and unnerves investors.”
Previously, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) cited an analysis by investment bank Barclays and reported that the software industry is estimated to account for about 20% of BDC investment assets related to private lending.
On the other hand, CEOs of major private equity funds dismissed concerns in recent performance announcements, saying that the SW sector only accounts for a single-digit portion of the overall investment portfolio.
YTN Yutu-kwon ([email protected])
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date: 2026-02-13 20:51:00
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