Iran After Khamenei: US and Israeli Strikes Trigger Regional Escalation
Waves of Israeli and US air strikes hit Iran on Sunday, following the killing of supreme leader Ali Khamenei. The attacks prompted retaliatory missile barrages from Iran, targeting Israel and pro-American Gulf Arab states, escalating tensions across the Middle East.
Targeting the Revolutionary Guard and Basij Forces
Sunday’s attacks within Iran primarily focused on headquarters and compounds belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij paramilitary force. These organizations have been central to the recent suppression of anti-regime protests. A video released showed a drone attack on a Basij motorcycle unit in Tehran.
Establishing Air Superiority
Israel secured a critical air corridor to Tehran by destroying Iranian air defense installations, enabling US and Israeli aircraft to operate with relative impunity over the Iranian capital. Israeli officials stated their intention to extend this corridor to other areas of Iran in the coming days. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced, “Our forces are now striking the heart of Tehran with increasing strength,” and indicated further escalation.
Casualty Reports and Regional Impact
Iran reported mounting casualties, with “hundreds” killed across the country, including 165 fatalities in an explosion at a school in southern Iran, according to Iranian media. US Central Command (Centcom) confirmed the deaths of three US service members and injuries to five others. Centcom similarly confirmed that B-2 stealth bombers struck Iran’s underground ballistic missile storage facilities on Saturday night.
Trump’s Response and Calls for Regime Change
US President Donald Trump stated, “America will avenge their deaths” and vowed to “deliver the most punishing blow to the terrorists who have waged war against, basically, civilisation.” He also claimed US forces had sunk nine Iranian naval ships and destroyed their headquarters, and asserted that 48 Iranian leaders had been killed, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump suggested the conflict could continue for the next four weeks, with combat operations continuing until “all objectives are achieved.”
International Reactions and UK Involvement
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the UK would allow the US to use British bases for defensive strikes against Iranian missiles, but stated the UK would not participate in offensive action, referencing lessons learned from the Iraq War. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, for the first time, called for regime change in Iran, stating, “A credible transition in Iran is urgently needed.”
Iranian Retaliation and Regional Attacks
Iran responded by firing hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, and Qatar, resulting in fatalities and injuries in countries not previously accustomed to such attacks. In Israel, nine people were killed and over 50 injured when an Iranian missile struck a shelter beneath a synagogue in Beit Shemesh, destroying the building. Three other Israelis were killed in separate attacks.
Tentative Steps Towards De-escalation
Amidst the ongoing conflict, there were initial indications of potential negotiations. Trump stated that Iran’s fresh leaders “want to talk,” and he agreed to engage with them, noting that “most” of the Iranians involved in the negotiations thus far “are no longer among the living.”
Succession and Domestic Response
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death was confirmed by Iran, and his successor is expected to be announced in the coming days. Memorial gatherings were held in Tehran, but there were also celebrations welcoming Khamenei’s death and calling for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah of Iran, and other diaspora opposition figures, along with Trump, urged anti-regime protesters to remain home until the military attacks subside.
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