Cold Front to Bring Rain, Wind, and Temperature Drops to Mexico
A cold front is forecast to bring a period of unsettled weather to central and eastern Mexico from Thursday, March 12, 2026, through Friday, March 13, 2026. The system will bring rain, wind, hail, and a significant drop in temperatures, particularly across the Altiplano region.
Seasonal Transition
Meteorological variations are typical in Mexico during February and March, as the country transitions from winter to spring. These fluctuations involve shifts between cold and warm temperatures, sunshine and storms, and calm and windy conditions, resulting from the interaction of polar and tropical air masses. This is a normal seasonal pattern and not necessarily indicative of climate change or global warming.
Frontal Passage and Impacts
The approaching cold front will affect states in the north, northeast, center, east, and southeast of Mexico. The most significant temperature decreases are expected in the Altiplano region, accompanied by rainfall spreading from west to southeast. A “North” wind event is also anticipated.
As of tonight, the front is moving across Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas, and is expected to cross the Huasteca region and northern Veracruz at dawn. Scattered heavy rains and thunderstorms are likely, extending into the Valley of Mexico with scattered showers. The front is forecast to move southeast towards Central America by Thursday.
Strong Winds and Coastal Impacts
High pressure associated with the polar air will generate strong gusts of wind, with “North” winds of 75-95 km/h in Veracruz, potentially exceeding 100 km/h in the Isthmus. Weaker winds of 40-60 km/h are expected along the coasts of the peninsula and the Altiplano from the Bajío to the Valley of Mexico. These strong winds are expected to subside by Friday.
Rainfall Forecast
Heavy rainfall is predicted for Thursday north of Oaxaca-Chiapas and south of Veracruz, with accumulations of 20-50 mm and localized amounts of 70-100 mm in mountainous areas. More scattered rainfall of 5-15 mm, with localized amounts of 20-50 mm, is expected in Quintana Roo, Yucatán, Campeche, Tabasco, State of Mexico, Mexico City, Jalisco, and Michoacán, with lesser amounts in Guanajuato, Morelos, and Zacatecas.
On Friday, rainfall will concentrate in the Neovolcanic Axis and the southeast, with locally strong events in Michoacán, State of Mexico, Morelos, Mexico City, Puebla, and Tlaxcala, with accumulations of 10-30 mm. Higher amounts of 50-75 mm are forecast for Campeche and Quintana Roo, with lesser amounts in Yucatán, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Guerrero, Colima, and Jalisco.
Temperature Shifts
The passage of the cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the central-eastern half of the country. Thursday dawn will be incredibly cool in Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Durango, Zacatecas, and San Luis Potosí, with temperatures between 5-15 °C, followed by a mild afternoon of 20-27 °C, including Tamaulipas. Pacific states will experience a period of intense heat, particularly in the northwest, with temperatures potentially exceeding 35-40 °C, and possibly reaching 45 °C next week.
Between the Bajío and Valley of Mexico, temperatures will range from 15-25 °C in the afternoon. Higher valleys from Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Veracruz, and Oaxaca will be the coldest, with temperatures between 5 and 15 °C and dense fogs in mountainous areas. The southeast will see temperatures drop from 35-40 °C in the afternoon to 25-30 °C by evening.
Friday will bring cooler temperatures at dawn to the north, northeast, center, and east, averaging 10 °C, and potentially lower in fields and mountains. Afternoon temperatures will increase slightly in the north and Bajío, reaching 28-32 °C, while the center will remain cool, with the Valley of Mexico experiencing temperatures between 15-24 °C and up to 35 °C in the southeast.
“North” Event Details
The “North” wind event is currently affecting northeastern states, with gusts of 50-75 km/h increasing along the coast of Tamaulipas early in the morning. Winds in Veracruz will accelerate simultaneously, with gusts of 75-95 km/h expected on the central coast by noon and early afternoon, and exceeding 100 km/h in the Isthmus by evening. The event is expected to subside completely by Friday.
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