Neorealism, a cornerstone of international relations theory, is a comprehensive lens through which to analyse state behavior in a disordered world. States, whether driven by survival or ambition, are expected to balance power (Waltz 1979) or maximise it (Mearsheimer 2001), yielding predictable patterns of interaction across the global stage. Yet the empirical record disagrees, as geography and context muddy these theoretical waters. In the Arctic, a great power rivalry between the United States and China manifests as a quiet jostle for economic advantage. Oil exploration, rare earth mineral stakes, and tentative shipping lane claims play out without spiralling into…