After Pretoria peace deal, old enemies in Ethiopia’s Tigray find new ground

Live updates

1. 9d ago

   Tigray Peace Deal Strains Amid Border Clashes and Drone Strikes

   Tensions in Ethiopia's Tigray region are escalating as old adversaries find new ground following the Pretoria peace deal, with fighting flaring near the border and forcing hundreds to flee into Sudan. TPLF realignment has raised fresh concerns regarding regional stability. While the new conflict remains localized, it features deadly drone strikes and border clashes that strain the previous peace agreement. Broader geopolitical friction, including Ethiopia and Eritrea tensions over a Red Sea port, has complicated the situation and turned the peace deal into a political weapon.

   Why it matters

   The fragile security situation follows the 2020-2022 war between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government. Analysts are closely watching whether the current flare-up will mimic the scale of that prior conflict. External pressures, particularly involving regional access and neighboring states, continue to threaten the implementation of the Pretoria peace accord.

   What is confirmed

   • Fighting has flared near the border, causing hundreds of people to flee Tigray into Sudan.
   • Tensions have grown over TPLF realignment and an undeclared drone war in the region.
   • Ethiopia and Eritrea tensions over a Red Sea port have turned the Tigray peace deal into a political weapon.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The new conflict between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government is mimicking the scale of the 2020-2022 war.

   What to watch next

   • Whether the localized border clashes and drone strikes escalate into a wider full-scale conflict.
   • Developments in the Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions over Red Sea port access.
   • Shifts in the alignment of the TPLF and government responses.
   Sources used for this update (7)

   1. Al Jazeera — After Pretoria peace deal, old enemies in Ethiopia’s Tigray find new ground
   2. The Economist — Ethiopia’s undeclared drone war
   3. Arab News — Hundreds flee Tigray into Sudan after fighting flares near border
   4. ACLED — Is the new conflict between TPLF and the Ethiopian government mimicking the scale of the 2020-2022 war?
   5. kulu-media.com — TPLF Realignment Raises New Concerns as Tigray Tensions Grow
   6. EL OBRERO | Periodismo de datos — Ethiopia‑Eritrea tensions over Red Sea port have turned the Tigray peace deal into a political weapon
   7. The Eastleigh Voice — One month on, Tigray conflict remains localised but deadly amid drone strikes, border clashes
   confidence 85%