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● TRACKER Updated 21d ago · 58 sources tracked

Federal appeals court rules that states can regulate betting markets

Lawmakers from gaming states are pressing the Supreme Court to intervene in the legal battle over prediction markets and state-level gambling authority. The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States warned of consequences if Kalshi succeeds in arguing that sports event contracts are not bets under state laws. This push joins ongoing petitions from New Jersey, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, which seek clarity on whether federal regulators hold exclusive authority or if states can enforce local licensing rules on event-based trading platforms.

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  • ✓ The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States warned of consequences if Kalshi succeeds in arguing that sports event contracts do not amount to bets under state laws.
  • ✓ Prediction markets allow participants to trade on the outcomes of real-world events including politics, culture, economics, war, and sports.
🛡️ Source Corroboration: 58 independent reporting domains (95% confidence) ⏱ Read time: ~2 min

What changed

The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States formally urged the Supreme Court to take up the Kalshi case.

Live updates

  1. Gaming Lawmakers Urge SCOTUS to Hear Kalshi Case

    Lawmakers from gaming states are pressing the Supreme Court to intervene in the legal battle over prediction markets and state-level gambling authority. The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States warned of consequences if Kalshi succeeds in arguing that sports event contracts are not bets under state laws. This push joins ongoing petitions from New Jersey, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, which seek clarity on whether federal regulators hold exclusive authority or if states can enforce local licensing rules on event-based trading platforms.

    Why it matters

    Prediction markets allow users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events such as politics, culture, economics, war, and sports. While supporters view these platforms as powerful forecasting tools, critics warn they encourage speculation, manipulation, and the financialization of uncertainty. The current legal clash centers on the jurisdictional boundary between federal commodities regulation and traditional state oversight of gambling markets.

    What is confirmed

    • The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States warned of consequences if Kalshi succeeds in arguing that sports event contracts do not amount to bets under state laws.
    • Prediction markets allow participants to trade on the outcomes of real-world events including politics, culture, economics, war, and sports.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Supporters view prediction markets as powerful forecasting tools while critics warn they encourage speculation, manipulation, and the financialization of uncertainty.

    What to watch next

    • Supreme Court decisions on whether to hear the pending petitions from New Jersey, Robinhood, Crypto.com, and related gaming coalitions.
    • Further state-level enforcement actions against prediction market platforms offering sports event contracts without state licenses.
    Sources used for this update (5)
    1. newrepublic.com — How Do You Stop Election Tampering Before It Happens?
    2. www.scoop.co.nz — What Are Prediction Markets—and Can They Really Predict The Future?
    3. asiatimes.com — Can prediction markets create the future they predict?
    4. sports.yahoo.com — New Senate bill would limit college sports transfers and earnings
    5. cointelegraph.com — US lawmakers from gaming states urge SCOTUS to take up Kalshi case
    confidence 95%

  2. Companies and States Petition Supreme Court Over Prediction Market Authority

    The U.S. Supreme Court is now the target of multiple petitions to resolve the conflict between federal authority and state regulation of sports event contracts. New Jersey petitioned the court on Sept. 2 to determine if Kalshi can legally offer sports betting across all 50 states without state licenses. Simultaneously, Robinhood and Crypto.com have asked the court to clarify if the CFTC holds exclusive authority. These legal challenges follow a wave of state-level enforcement, including cease-and-desist orders in Connecticut and shutdowns in Missouri.

    Why it matters

    Prediction markets are currently operating in a fragmented legal environment. States are increasingly treating these platforms as unlicensed sports betting operators. This tension creates a clash between state gaming acts and federal oversight.

    What is confirmed

    • New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court on Sept. 2 regarding whether Kalshi can offer sports betting in all 50 states without state licenses.
    • Robinhood and Crypto.com have asked the Supreme Court to clarify if the CFTC holds exclusive authority over sports event contracts.
    • The Missouri Attorney General ordered Kalshi and Polymarket to stop operating prediction markets in the state.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Underdog filed a federal lawsuit against Connecticut officials after receiving a cease-and-desist order.

    What to watch next

    • Supreme Court decision on whether to hear the petitions from New Jersey, Robinhood, or Crypto.com
    • Rulings on the Underdog lawsuit in Connecticut
    Sources used for this update (4)
    1. cdcgaming.com — CDC Gaming: Inside the latest prediction market developments
    2. www.yogonet.com — Crypto.com, Robinhood ask Supreme Court to settle federal-state fight over sports event contracts
    3. www.union-bulletin.com — Missouri AG orders Kalshi, Polymarket to stop operating prediction markets here
    4. startupfortune.com — New Jersey Asks Supreme Court to Decide if Kalshi's Sports Betting Is Legal
    confidence 95%

  3. Ninth Circuit Reverses Injunction Ruling In Kalshi Tribal Land Dispute

    A federal appeals court has reversed the denial of an injunction sought by the Blue Lake Rancheria against Kalshi. The panel addressed sports contracts offered on tribal lands, altering the legal dynamic surrounding prediction markets. This decision arrives amid heightened regulatory pressure from states targeting sports-event contracts. New Jersey and Michigan have already initiated separate actions against prediction platforms, creating a fragmented enforcement framework across different jurisdictions as courts weigh the statutory definition of betting under gaming acts.

    Why it matters

    Prediction markets face mounting challenges as state authorities and tribal entities assert regulatory control over sports-event financial contracts. The dispute centers on whether offering these products on sovereign tribal land violates federal Indian gaming laws. The latest judicial reversal deepens the friction between online platforms and regional gaming regulators attempting to restrict unauthorized sports wagering.

    What is confirmed

    • The Ninth Circuit reversed a denial of Blue Lake Rancheria’s injunction against Kalshi over sports contracts offered on tribal lands.

    What to watch next

    • Further judicial actions or enforcement measures by state attorneys general and gaming commissions regarding prediction contracts.
    Sources used for this update (2)
    1. ftw.usatoday.com — Is Kalshi Legal in Texas? Yes — Use Code SBWIRE55 to Start Trading Today (September 2026)
    2. www.bettingnews.com — Ninth Circuit Reverses Kalshi Tribal Injunction Ruling
    confidence 100%

  4. Federal Appeals Court Blocks Kalshi Sports Contracts on Tribal Lands

    A federal appeals court has blocked Kalshi from offering sports-event contracts on tribal lands in California. The Ninth Circuit panel ruled that purchasing these contracts constitutes placing a bet under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, siding with two California tribes. This decision intensifies nationwide friction as prediction markets face escalating state-level pressures, including financial penalties in Michigan and a petition by New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport to the U.S. Supreme Court.

    Why it matters

    States and prediction markets remain in conflict regarding whether event contracts constitute regulated gambling or financial swaps. The core legal question of federal preemption is still unresolved as local jurisdictions attempt to enforce their own regulations. The Ninth Circuit ruling adds significant weight to state and tribal efforts to restrict these platforms.

    What is confirmed

    • A federal appeals court panel sided with two California tribes to block Kalshi from offering sports-event contracts on tribal lands.
    • The Ninth Circuit panel determined that purchasing a Kalshi sports contract constitutes placing a bet under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.

    What to watch next

    • A potential decision by the U.S. Supreme Court on the petition filed by New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport.
    • The resolution of the circuit split regarding whether event contracts are regulated gambling or financial swaps.
    • Further state-level enforcement actions and penalties against prediction markets in Michigan and other jurisdictions.
    Sources used for this update (5)
    1. www.goal.com — Best Sports Betting Apps July 2026 - Top US Sportsbooks Ranked
    2. jen.jiji.com — Do you bring your cup to the bar? Coffee costs only 50 cents
    3. financefeeds.com — Appeals Court Blocks Kalshi Sports Contracts on California Tribal Lands
    4. finance.yahoo.com — JPMorgan Says Agency Crypto Rules Can Be Overturned in Court. Is Losing the CLARITY Act Worse Than It Looks?
    5. www.yahoo.com — FDA eases compounding rules for preemie nutrition packs as supply shortage looms
    confidence 100%

  5. Appeals Court Blocks Sports Event Contracts on California Tribal Lands

    A federal appeals court ruled in favor of two California tribes on Wednesday, blocking Kalshi from offering sports-event contracts on their tribal lands. This decision arrives as prediction markets face escalating state-level pressures nationwide, including daily financial penalties in Michigan over un-geofenced sports contracts. Meanwhile, New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport has petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve a circuit split regarding whether these event contracts constitute regulated gambling or financial swaps. The central question of federal preemption remains unresolved as various states attempt to enforce local regulations.

    Why it matters

    Prediction platforms and regulatory bodies are engaged in an ongoing legal battle over jurisdiction and market oversight. Kalshi faces a rehearing bid that could delay a Supreme Court review. And legislative efforts stalled when the Senate failed cloture on the CLARITY Act in a 49-50 vote, pushing crypto and prediction-market regulation past the November midterms.

    What is confirmed

    • A federal appeals court ruled in favor of two California tribes on Wednesday, blocking Kalshi from offering sports-event contracts on tribal lands.
    • New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve a circuit split regarding event contracts.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Kalshi's rehearing bid could potentially delay a Supreme Court review regarding sports prediction markets.

    What to watch next

    • Decisions from the U.S. Supreme Court on the petition to resolve the circuit split.
    • Developments from Kalshi's rehearing bid.
    • Further state-level enforcement actions and penalties against prediction platforms.
    Sources used for this update (7)
    1. jen.jiji.com — Food, Anir Confindustria: "Design the future and become an increasingly integral part of Italian industry"
    2. www.quiverquant.com — Quiver News
    3. jen.jiji.com — Rai, today in the Board of Directors the Ranucci case and Sergio's farewell to the general management
    4. jen.jiji.com — Weather, everything changes: rain and thunderstorms in the North, then bad weather arrives in the South
    5. www.covers.com — Ninth Circuit Rehearing Could Shape Prediction Market Supreme Court Timeline
    6. insidebitcoins.com — Senate Fails Cloture on CLARITY Act 49-50, Stalling Prediction-Market Rules
    7. cdcgaming.com — U.S. Appeals Court blocks sports-event contracts on California tribal lands
    confidence 95%

  6. Manhattan Federal Court Weighs New York Prediction Market Crackdown

    Attorneys representing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a prediction market operator urged a Manhattan federal court to halt New York State from cracking down on prediction platforms. This courtroom battle unfolds as prediction markets face mounting state-level pressures across the country, including daily penalties in Michigan over sports event contracts lacking geofences. Meanwhile, New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport has petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve a circuit split regarding whether these event contracts constitute regulated gambling or financial swaps, leaving the central question of federal preemption unresolved.

    Why it matters

    State regulators and federal entities continue to clash over the legal status of event contracts that allow users to speculate on elections and sports matches. Prediction platforms operate like regular stock exchanges where users buy and sell fixed-payout contracts, creating tension with state gambling laws. Courts are now tasked with determining whether federal commodity regulations preempt state enforcement actions.

    What is confirmed

    • Attorneys for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a prediction market operator asked a New York federal court to block New York State.
    • New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport petitioned the Supreme Court to resolve a circuit split over whether event contracts qualify as gambling or financial swaps.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Prediction markets face daily penalties in Michigan for lacking a geofence on sports event contracts.

    What to watch next

    • A ruling from the Manhattan federal court on New York State's prediction market crackdown.
    • Supreme Court action on New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport's petition regarding event contracts.
    Sources used for this update (9)
    1. jen.jiji.com — Weather, more rain in the Center-South then everything changes: what happens with the arrival of the Azores Anticyclone
    2. www.law.com — Supreme Court Blocks New GOP Congressional Map in Missouri
    3. finance.yahoo.com — Genius Sports: Americans are Going to Keep Wagering
    4. jen.jiji.com — Agriculture: Ismea, deadline for applications to Inail Fund of 10 million for tractors extended to December 15
    5. www.law.com — ‘A Toss-Up?’: Manhattan Federal Court Weighs NY's Prediction Market Crackdown
    6. www.empirecenter.org — N.Y. fails education despite spending big
    7. theconversation.com — When a bet may not be gambling ‑ the puzzle of prediction markets
    8. www.miragenews.com — Prediction Markets: Betting or Not?
    9. markets.ft.com — Genius Sports: Americans are Going to Keep Wagering
    confidence 100%

  7. Appeals Court Refuses to Stop Utah Gambling Crackdown on Kalshi

    A federal appeals court declined to block Utah from enforcing its gambling law against prediction market Kalshi, leaving the central question of federal preemption unresolved. The decision comes as the U.S. Supreme Court monitors the situation regarding potential state regulation of prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Meanwhile, prediction markets face various state-level pressures, including daily penalties in Michigan for lacking a geofence on sports event contracts. New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport has petitioned the Supreme Court to resolve a circuit split over whether these event contracts qualify as gambling or financial swaps.

    Why it matters

    The legal conflict tests the boundaries of state versus federal authority over prediction markets and event contracts. State regulators and officials seek to enforce local gambling laws against platforms operating across state lines, while operators maintain their activities fall under federal jurisdiction. This division has created a complex web of conflicting state restrictions and court actions as the Supreme Court watches the dispute.

    What is confirmed

    • A federal appeals court declined to block Utah from enforcing its gambling law against Kalshi.
    • The core legal fight over federal preemption remains unresolved following the appeals court decision.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Polymarket and Kalshi face possible regulation as the Supreme Court monitors the situation.

    What to watch next

    • Supreme Court action on New Jersey's petition to resolve the circuit split
    • Resolution of the federal preemption legal fight between states and prediction markets
    Sources used for this update (6)
    1. mashable.com — Polymarket and Kalshi face possible regulation as Supreme Court 'monitors the situation'
    2. www.yahoo.com — Election Integrity Hysteria Betrays Weakness
    3. www.yahoo.com — Idaho election officials worry about mail-in ballot changes proposed by Trump administration
    4. www.law.com — Election Disputes Descend on Supreme Court Ahead of Midterms
    5. utahpolitics.news — Federal appeals court won't pause Utah's gambling crackdown on Kalshi
    6. jen.jiji.com — Women's tennis in financial crisis, WTA circuit risks bankruptcy
    confidence 100%

  8. Supreme Court Weighs Future of Prediction Markets and Betting Control

    The future of state versus federal control over sports betting is facing a high-stakes test at the U.S. Supreme Court as prediction markets battle state regulations. This legal conflict centers on whether event contracts qualify as gambling or financial swaps. Meanwhile, prediction market Kalshi faces daily penalties in Michigan for lacking a geofence on sports event contracts while blocking users from wagering on New Jersey's legal challenge. New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport has petitioned the Supreme Court to resolve a circuit split on the issue.

    Why it matters

    Prediction platforms face mounting state-level pressure and financial penalties over sports event contracts while attempting to expand their footprint. The unfolding legal battle highlights a regulatory vacuum as states assert authority over betting markets against federal classifications. This federal-state friction draws broader attention to jurisdictional limits on digital financial contracts.

    What is confirmed

    • Prediction markets regulation is challenged at the U.S. Supreme Court, shaping the future of state versus federal control over sports betting.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Prediction market Kalshi faces $500,000 daily penalties in Michigan for failing to geofence sports event contracts.

    What to watch next

    • Supreme Court decisions resolving the circuit split over prediction contracts.
    • Further state enforcement actions or penalties against prediction platforms.
    Sources used for this update (7)
    1. www.yahoo.com — Judge says Trump's federal takeover of mail-in voting is unconstitutional and states cannot 'feasibly' comply with proposed rule in time for upcoming midterm elections
    2. www.yahoo.com — California has heat-safety rules for farmworkers, but enforcement waned | Opinion
    3. www.ibtimes.co.uk — 'Impeach Everyone Who Is Responsible': Expert Says Trump Order Outright Defies Supreme Court
    4. www.bursa.ro — The energy crisis, unsolved by the Bolojan Government
    5. en.cryptonomist.ch — Supreme Court Weighs Prediction Markets Regulation as States Clash With Kalshi
    6. www.igamingtoday.com — Brazil Creates Procedure to Recover More Than R$1 Billion in Funds Linked to Illegal Betting
    7. www.yahoo.com — Looming ballot deadline complicates GOP appeal of Missouri redistricting decision
    confidence 80%

  9. Michigan threatens Kalshi with $500,000 daily fines over sports contracts

    Prediction market Kalshi faces $500,000 daily penalties in Michigan for failing to geofence sports event contracts. The platform has blocked users from wagering on the outcome of New Jersey's legal challenge against it. This escalation occurs as New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport petitions the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve a circuit split over whether such contracts are gambling or swaps. While Michigan forces these contracts offline, other firms like STX are attempting to enter the U.S. prediction market using experience from Ontario iGaming.

    Why it matters

    States are fighting to ensure prediction markets follow the same taxes and regulations as licensed sportsbooks. New Jersey seeks a high court ruling to prevent platforms from evading state gambling laws. A federal appeals court split on preemption has created the current legal instability.

    What is confirmed

    • Michigan is imposing a $500,000 daily fine on Kalshi for failing to geofence sports event contracts.
    • Kalshi has blocked wagering on the outcome of the New Jersey lawsuit.
    • New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport filed a petition asking the U.S. Supreme Court to settle whether prediction markets must follow state gambling laws.
    • Federal appeals courts are currently split on the issue of preemption regarding these contracts.

    Still unconfirmed

    • STX plans to use its Ontario iGaming experience to enter the U.S. prediction market business.
    • Prediction market bets on Pennsylvania politics could lead to corruption.

    What to watch next

    • U.S. Supreme Court decision on whether to grant certiorari to New Jersey's petition
    • Confirmation of whether Kalshi implements the required geofencing in Michigan
    • Further state-level injunctions against prediction market sports contracts
    Sources used for this update (6)
    1. thecurrencyanalytics.com — Kalshi Halts Betting on Its Supreme Court Fate Amid $500K Fine Threat from Michigan
    2. TribLIVE.com — Could prediction market bets on Pa. politics lead to corruption?
    3. www.covers.com — STX’s Springboard: Ontario iGaming Experience Fuels US Prediction Market Push
    4. cryptoslate.com — Kalshi faces $500,000 daily fines as Michigan forces sports event contracts offline
    5. www.financemagnates.com — Federal Courts Now Disagree on Kalshi’s Sports Contracts. New Jersey Wants the Supreme Court to Settle the Fight
    6. thecurrencyanalytics.com — New Jersey Seeks Supreme Court Review of Kalshi’s Controversial Sports Contracts
    confidence 90%

  10. New Jersey petitions Supreme Court over Kalshi sports betting

    New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to determine if prediction markets like Kalshi can offer sports betting nationwide without following state gambling laws. The petition follows a circuit split regarding whether these contracts are gambling or swaps. New Jersey seeks a ruling to prevent Kalshi from evading state regulations. Separately, Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway argues that prediction markets offering sports contracts should be subject to the same taxes and regulations as licensed sportsbooks.

    Why it matters

    A federal appeals court previously ruled that states can regulate prediction markets as gambling. This decision stopped Kalshi from operating election and sports trading in Nevada without a license. The current legal battle centers on whether federal commodities law preempts state oversight.

    What is confirmed

    • New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport asked the U.S. Supreme Court to decide if prediction markets can offer sports betting without complying with state gambling laws.
    • A circuit split has left the legal status of the 22 billion dollar platform Kalshi unresolved.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Crypto exchange Gate launched a white-label builder for prediction markets via Gate DexBuilder.

    What to watch next

    • The U.S. Supreme Court decision on whether to grant certiorari to New Jersey's petition.
    • Further state attorney general filings regarding the regulation of prediction markets.
    • Court rulings on the specific classification of Kalshi contracts as swaps or gambling.
    Sources used for this update (7)
    1. arstechnica.com — NJ urges SCOTUS to rule that Kalshi sports bets are gambling, not “swaps”
    2. www.lawcommentary.com — Supreme Court Asked to Decide Whether Kalshi Can Bypass State Sports Betting Laws
    3. njbia.org — NJ AG Asks US Supreme Court to Stop Kalshi from Evading State Gambling Laws
    4. startupfortune.com — Crypto Exchange Gate Launches a White-Label Builder for Prediction Markets
    5. startupfortune.com — New Jersey Asks the Supreme Court to Decide Kalshi's Sports Betting Fate
    6. www.nytimes.com — An insurance company bet on LSU to win big. Is it tied to Lane Kiffin’s bonus?
    7. finance.yahoo.com — Missouri AG: Prediction Markets Should Follow Same Rules as Sportsbooks
    confidence 95%

  11. Federal appeals court rules states can regulate betting markets

    A federal appeals court has ruled that states have the authority to regulate prediction markets as gambling, rejecting Kalshi's claim that federal commodities law preempts state oversight. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals' unanimous decision prevents Kalshi from operating sports and election trading in Nevada without a state gambling license. This ruling characterizes prediction market contracts as gambling rather than swaps.

    Why it matters

    The decision has significant implications for the multibillion-dollar prediction market industry, which has been subject to competing interpretations of the law. The ruling may lead to a Supreme Court decision that could reshape the industry's outlook. States are seizing on the Nevada ruling to regulate prediction markets.

    What is confirmed

    • The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled unanimously that states have the authority to regulate prediction markets as gambling.
    • The ruling prevents Kalshi from operating sports and election trading in Nevada without a state gambling license.
    • New Jersey has asked the US Supreme Court to review the decision and clarify the regulation of prediction markets.
    • The prediction market industry is worth billions of dollars and is subject to competing interpretations of the law.

    What to watch next

    • The US Supreme Court's decision on whether to review the case
    • The outcome of New Jersey's petition to the Supreme Court
    • The impact of the ruling on the prediction market industry
    Sources used for this update (9)
    1. www.baltimoresun.com — Conflicting court rulings deepen fight over how prediction markets are regulated
    2. www.covers.com — Other States Seize on Nevada’s Prediction Market Triumph
    3. sports.yahoo.com — Bill Simmons on Proxy Betting Foofaraw: 'Lesson Learned'
    4. www.usatoday.com — NJ wants Supreme Court to let states regulate prediction markets
    5. thecurrencyanalytics.com — New Jersey Urges Supreme Court to Clarify Regulation of Prediction Markets
    6. cdcgaming.com — New Jersey asks U.S. Supreme Court to decide who regulates prediction markets
    7. www.law.com — 'Profoundly Wrong': New Jersey Asks Supreme Court to Review Kalshi's Win Over State Gambling Rules
    8. finance.yahoo.com — New Jersey Seeks Supreme Court Review of Sports Prediction Market Case
    9. jerseyvindicator.org — New Jersey petitions Supreme Court to block Kalshi from sidestepping state gambling laws
    confidence 100%

  12. Federal appeals court rules states can regulate betting markets

    A federal appeals court has ruled that states have the authority to regulate prediction markets as gambling, rejecting Kalshi's claim that federal commodities law preempts state oversight. The unanimous decision by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals prevents Kalshi from operating sports and election trading in Nevada without a state gambling license. This ruling characterizes prediction market contracts as gambling rather than swaps.

    Why it matters

    The decision intensifies a legal dispute over whether prediction markets are financial products regulated by Washington or state-controlled gambling operations. This issue may ultimately be settled by the Supreme Court, as the ruling creates a circuit split with a previous decision by the 3rd Circuit. The case has implications for the regulation of prediction markets and sports betting in the United States.

    What is confirmed

    • The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals found that Kalshi's sports contracts amount to sports betting, even though the company offers them through a federally regulated exchange.
    • The appeals court held that sports event contracts are bets—and not 'swaps,' which fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission under the federal Commodity Exchange Act.
    • A ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit allowing Nevada to regulate prediction markets like Kalshi creates a split with the 3rd Circuit.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Kalshi this week announced it had entered into a brand partnership with the Padres and three other of the 'most beloved teams'

    What to watch next

    • The Supreme Court's decision on whether to hear the case and settle the circuit split
    • The impact of the ruling on Kalshi's operations and partnerships in other states
    • The response from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on the ruling and its implications for federal regulation
    Sources used for this update (5)
    1. www.techspot.com — A federal court just ruled Kalshi's sports markets are basically sports betting
    2. newschannel9.com — Conflicting court rulings deepen fight over how prediction markets are regulated
    3. voiceofsandiego.org — Federal Court Rules Padres Partner Offers Illegal Gambling
    4. www.law.com — 9th Circuit Says Nevada Can Regulate Kalshi Contracts as Gambling, Creating Circuit Split
    5. www.americanbanker.com — Kalshi ruling favoring states tees up Supreme Court fight
    confidence 85%

  13. Ninth Circuit rules Nevada can regulate Kalshi sports contracts as gambling

    A federal appeals court ruled on August 28 that Nevada has the authority to regulate prediction markets as gambling. The unanimous decision rejects Kalshi's claim that federal commodities law preempts state oversight of its sports-event contracts. This ruling prevents the platform from operating sports and election trading in Nevada without a state gambling license. The court characterized these contracts as gambling rather than swaps, intensifying a legal dispute over whether prediction markets are financial products regulated by Washington or state-controlled gambling operations.

    Why it matters

    Prediction platforms typically seek licensing from a federal commodity regulator to avoid state gaming board oversight and gambling taxes. This decision creates a circuit split with a previous Third Circuit ruling. Such disagreement between federal courts often leads to a Supreme Court review.

    What is confirmed

    • A federal appeals court ruled on August 28 that states can regulate prediction markets as gambling.
    • The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals rejected Kalshi's claim that federal law preempts Nevada's authority over sports contracts.
    • The court's decision was unanimous.
    • The ruling prevents Kalshi from restarting trading on sports and election events in Nevada without a state gambling license.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Prediction platforms avoid being taxed like gambling because they are licensed by a federal commodity regulator.

    What to watch next

    • Supreme Court decision on the circuit split between the Third and Ninth Circuits.
    • Kalshi's application for a Nevada state gambling license.
    Sources used for this update (6)
    1. en.bloomingbit.io — US Appeals Court Backs Nevada’s Authority to Regulate Kalshi Sports Contracts
    2. thecurrencyanalytics.com — Ninth Circuit Deal Blow to Kalshi’s CFTC Preemption Claim in Nevada Betting Dispute
    3. www.cnn.com — ‘This is an all-out war’: Inside the casino industry’s fight to stop prediction markets
    4. www.wqow.com — States can regulate prediction markets as gambling, federal appeals court rules
    5. www.tekedia.com — Appeals Court Rules Nevada Can Regulate Kalshi, Deepening Legal Fight Over Prediction Markets
    6. cryptonews.net — Kalshi ruling puts CFTC prediction rules at risk
    confidence 100%

  14. 9th Circuit Rules States Can Regulate Prediction Markets as Gambling

    A 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals panel ruled that states have the authority to regulate prediction markets as gambling. The 3-0 decision prevents prediction market operator Kalshi from restarting trading on sporting and election events in Nevada without a state gambling license. The court rejected Kalshi's argument that its sports-related event contracts are "swaps," instead characterizing them as gambling under a different name. This ruling creates a circuit split with a previous Third Circuit decision, increasing the likelihood of a Supreme Court review.

    Why it matters

    Prediction markets allow users to bet on the outcome of future events. Kalshi attempted to bypass state oversight by classifying these bets as financial swaps rather than gambling. This legal distinction determines whether a platform must obtain state-level gaming licenses to operate.

    What is confirmed

    • The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that states can regulate prediction markets as gambling.
    • A federal appeals court panel refused to let Kalshi restart trading on sports and election events in Nevada.
    • The court ruled that sports-related event contracts are not swaps.
    • The 3-0 ruling creates a circuit split with a Third Circuit decision from April.
    • Kalshi must obtain a license from state gambling regulators to operate in Nevada.

    What to watch next

    • A petition for review or a final decision by the U.S. Supreme Court
    • Further legal challenges from Kalshi against state gambling regulators
    Sources used for this update (11)
    1. CNN — States can regulate prediction markets as gambling, federal appeals court rules
    2. Reuters — Kalshi cannot block Nevada oversight of prediction markets, US appeals court rules
    3. CNBC — U.S. appeals court rules against prediction markets, sets up likely fight at Supreme Court
    4. NBC Sports — Federal appeals court rules that states can regulate betting markets
    5. Ars Technica — Court rules Kalshi sports bets aren’t “swaps,” just gambling with a different name
    6. finance.yahoo.com — Ninth Circuit rules states can regulate prediction markets as gambling
    7. www.azfamily.com — Federal court deals win to states in fight to regulate prediction market platforms
    8. www.cnbc.com — U.S. appeals court rules against prediction markets, sets up likely fight at Supreme Court
    9. thecurrencyanalytics.com — Kalshi Faces Legal Chaos After Appeals Court Rules States Control Prediction Markets
    10. arstechnica.com — Court rules Kalshi sports bets aren’t “swaps,” just gambling with a different name
    11. www.newsday.com — Federal appeals court panel gives Nevada a win in its fight to regulate prediction market Kalshi
    confidence 100%
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