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Gold Falls as Hawkish Fed Stokes 2026 Interest-Rate Hike Wagers

Gold prices recovered on Monday after a three-session decline. The rebound follows reports of progress in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. This shift occurs as some Wall Street firms lower their bullish outlooks for the metal.

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What changed

Gold prices rose on Monday following a losing streak and news of U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress.

Live updates

  1. Gold Rebounds from One-Week Low Amid U.S.-Iran Progress

    Gold prices recovered on Monday after a three-session decline. The rebound follows reports of progress in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. This shift occurs as some Wall Street firms lower their bullish outlooks for the metal.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Gold rebounded on Monday as Iran cited progress in peace talks.
    • A drop in Brent crude oil prices supported the gold rebound.
    • Several Wall Street firms no longer believe gold will meet their bullish targets.
    • The June Fed meeting established a hawkish tone.
    confidence 70%

  2. Gold Prices Decline as Fed Signals Potential Rate Hikes

    Gold prices dropped on Friday and are heading toward a third straight weekly loss. The decline follows hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar. The FOMC maintained current interest rates while suggesting future increases.

    What's confirmed:

    • The FOMC kept the target federal funds rate unchanged.
    • Gold prices fell on Friday.
    • The Federal Reserve signaled that higher interest rates may be coming.
    confidence 100%

  3. Gold Prices Volatile Following Hawkish Fed Signals and US-Iran Peace Deal

    Gold prices fell after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but signaled potential hikes later this year. These losses were partially offset by optimism surrounding an interim peace deal between the US and Iran. The dollar reached a 1 year high as markets reacted to the Fed's aggressive outlook.

    What's confirmed:

    • The Federal Reserve unanimously voted to keep the benchmark federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%.
    • Nine of the 19 Fed policymakers expect the benchmark rate to rise before the end of the year.
    • Kevin Warsh chaired his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting after succeeding Jerome Powell.
    • An interim peace deal was reached between the US and Iran.
    • The US dollar climbed to a 1 year high.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • The Federal Reserve is gauging the inflation effects of the Iran conflict.
    • Newmont and four other stocks are currently buys.
    confidence 90%