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● TRACKER Updated 13d ago · 16 sources tracked

Goldman Says Hormuz Oil Flows at Two-Thirds of Pre-War Levels

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to two-thirds of pre-war levels amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. The US has conducted strikes on Iranian launchers near the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has fired missiles at a US base in Jordan. Despite the increase in oil flows, significant disruptions persist, with 400 ships and 6,000 seafarers still unable to leave the Persian Gulf.

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⚡ Key Developments & Real-Time Context
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  • ✓ Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are at two-thirds of pre-war levels
  • ✓ 400 ships and 6,000 seafarers are still unable to leave the Persian Gulf
  • ✓ The US has conducted strikes on Iranian launchers near the Strait of Hormuz
🛡️ Source Corroboration: 16 independent reporting domains (85% confidence) ⏱ Read time: ~2 min

What changed

The US strikes on Iranian launchers near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's missile attack on a US base in Jordan mark a major escalation in the conflict.

Live updates

  1. Oil Flows Through Hormuz at Two-Thirds of Pre-War Levels

    Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to two-thirds of pre-war levels amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. The US has conducted strikes on Iranian launchers near the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has fired missiles at a US base in Jordan. Despite the increase in oil flows, significant disruptions persist, with 400 ships and 6,000 seafarers still unable to leave the Persian Gulf.

    Why it matters

    The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is critical due to its importance as a major oil shipping route. Tensions between the US and Iran have been rising, with both sides engaging in military actions. The disruptions to oil flows have significant implications for the global economy.

    What is confirmed

    • Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are at two-thirds of pre-war levels
    • 400 ships and 6,000 seafarers are still unable to leave the Persian Gulf
    • The US has conducted strikes on Iranian launchers near the Strait of Hormuz

    Still unconfirmed

    • Iranian drone intercepted by UAE

    What to watch next

    • Further US strikes on Iran
    • Iranian response to US military actions
    • Development of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz
    Sources used for this update (5)
    1. gulfnews.com — US strikes Iranian launchers near Strait of Hormuz; US denies oil tanker hit mines near Hormuz
    2. gulfnews.com — US-Iran war: Hormuz oil flows rebound to two-thirds as Trump warns of more strikes on Tehran
    3. gulfnews.com — US-Iran crisis: What UAE residents need to know today (Sept. 1)
    4. www.briefs.co — House backs stopgap funding 370-48, expected to sidestep fall shutdown
    5. seekingalpha.com — Goehring & Rozencwajg Q2 2026 Natural Resource Market Commentary
    confidence 85%

  2. Goldman Sachs Estimates Hormuz Oil Flows at Two-Thirds of Pre-War Levels

    Oil exports from the Gulf have recovered to more than 60% of their pre-war levels, according to Goldman Sachs. While the White House and some reports claim oil is pouring through the Strait of Hormuz and that the U.S. holds the upper hand, other data shows shipping traffic fluctuates and remains inconsistent. The International Maritime Organization reports that 400 ships and 6,000 seafarers are still unable to leave the Persian Gulf, indicating that while flow is increasing, significant disruptions persist.

    Why it matters

    The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global chokehold for oil transport. Control over this waterway provides immense strategic leverage during conflicts involving Iran. Current volatility affects global oil prices and shipping security.

    Still unconfirmed

    • Goldman Sachs estimates oil exports from the Gulf are at more than 60% of pre-war levels.
    • The International Maritime Organization reports 400 ships and 6,000 seafarers cannot depart the Persian Gulf.
    • The White House claims the U.S. has momentum regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
    • Shipping traffic via the strait has both slipped below its 10-day average and risen slightly according to different Reuters reports.

    What to watch next

    • Verification of U.S. claims regarding oil flow volumes by independent trackers.
    • Updates on the status of the 400 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf.
    • Changes in Iranian strategic posture regarding the waterway chokehold.
    Sources used for this update (14)
    1. The New York Times — Opinion | Let Iran Control the Strait of Hormuz
    2. WSJ — U.S. Says Oil Is Pouring Through Hormuz. Trackers Can’t Find It.
    3. The Guardian — Iran faces strait of Hormuz paradox as strategic value of chokehold erodes
    4. Bloomberg.com — Hormuz Oil Flows Rising as Gulf Giants’ Ramp Up Accelerates
    5. Reuters — Shipping traffic via Strait of Hormuz slips below 10-day average, data shows
    6. Axios — "That sucker is open": U.S. gains the upper hand in the battle for Hormuz
    7. Yahoo Finance — Goldman Says Hormuz Oil Flows at Two-Thirds of Pre-War Levels
    8. KOMO — White House says US has momentum with Strait of Hormuz
    9. CNBC — Oil exports from the Gulf rise to more than 60% of level before Iran war, Goldman Sachs estimates
    10. Reuters — Shipping traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises slightly, data shows
    11. The Maritime Executive — IMO: 400 Ships and 6,000 Seafarers Are Still Unable to Depart Persian Gulf
    12. Barron's — Oil Is Quietly Slipping Though the Strait of Hormuz. It’s Keeping a Lid on Prices.
    confidence 70%
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