Heating costs will surge this winter due to Iran war
A federal outlook shows the average American household will spend about 7% more on heat this winter compared with last season. Natural-gas users face roughly a 5% increase, while homes reliant on heating oil could see costs jump 10% or more. The Energy Information Administration attributes the rise to higher wholesale commodity prices and a forecast for colder weather than last year's mild season. The winter heating season runs from October through March.
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- ✓ Average U.S. heating expenditures are forecast to rise 7% this winter versus last winter.
- ✓ Households heating with natural gas are expected to pay about 5% more.
- ✓ Households heating with heating oil are expected to pay about 10% more.
- ✓ The Energy Information Administration cites higher wholesale prices and a colder weather forecast as primary drivers.
What changed
The Energy Information Administration released its Winter Fuels Outlook confirming a 7% national average increase and detailing fuel-specific projections.
Live updates
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U.S. heating costs projected to rise 7% this winter; heating oil up sharply
A federal outlook shows the average American household will spend about 7% more on heat this winter compared with last season. Natural-gas users face roughly a 5% increase, while homes reliant on heating oil could see costs jump 10% or more. The Energy Information Administration attributes the rise to higher wholesale commodity prices and a forecast for colder weather than last year's mild season. The winter heating season runs from October through March.
Why it matters
Heating expenses are a major component of winter household budgets, especially in the Northeast and Midwest where oil and gas dominate. The projected increase comes after two years of volatile energy markets driven by pandemic recovery, geopolitical tensions, and weather extremes. Policymakers are monitoring the impact on low-income families who qualify for LIHEAP assistance.
What is confirmed
- Average U.S. heating expenditures are forecast to rise 7% this winter versus last winter.
- Households heating with natural gas are expected to pay about 5% more.
- Households heating with heating oil are expected to pay about 10% more.
- The Energy Information Administration cites higher wholesale prices and a colder weather forecast as primary drivers.
Still unconfirmed
- Heating oil prices could spike as much as 70% due to an Iran war.
What to watch next
- EIA monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook updates through March
- Actual heating-degree-day data versus forecast
- LIHEAP funding levels for the 2026-27 season
confidence 92%Sources used for this update (17)
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- www.foxbusiness.com — Great Business Leaders in America & Around the World | Fox Business
- theconversation.com — What we talk about when we talk about US strategic ‘credibility’ – from Vietnam to Iran
- www.dailyrecord.co.uk — Ireland's oldest woman who died aged 109 revealed three secrets to long life
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- climate.ec.europa.eu — Chapter 1 - Climate action: advances and challenges
- tvlineups.com — Today Show on NBC Guests & Weekly Episode Schedule 2026
- The New York Times — Average U.S. Heating Costs Will Rise 7% This Winter
- The New York Times — Opinion | Think Diesel Prices Are Bad? Wait Until Your House Needs Heating.
- The Guardian — Average US heating bills to rise 7% this winter nationwide – report
- WCAX — Home heating oil prices about $2.50 higher than last year, EIA says
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