Here’s the real reason oil prices aren’t moving higher

Live updates

1. 24d ago

   Global oil prices defy expectations, remain stable

   Oil prices are not rising as expected despite global market tensions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Increased production and supply are contributing to this trend. Experts point to changes in global oil market dynamics. The current state of oil prices is a significant departure from initial expectations of a spike.

   Why it matters

   The stability in oil prices is crucial as it affects the global economy, influencing inflation, and economic growth. The oil market is closely watched by investors, policymakers, and consumers. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway for oil exports, and its closure can impact global oil supplies. The current situation has implications for the global economy and oil market.

   What is confirmed

   • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not led to a spike in oil prices.
   • Global oil market dynamics have changed, contributing to stable oil prices.
   • Alternative chokepoints move 36.7 million barrels per day.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Nigeria's 64% stock rally may continue, driven by reforms and local investors.

   What to watch next

   • The impact of the Iran conflict risk on oil prices
   • The effect of Fed hawkishness on mortgage rates
   • The development of global oil market dynamics
   Sources used for this update (5)

   1. www.miragenews.com — Peters: Boost Exports
   2. www.scoop.co.nz — Winston Peters' Speech - “Adding Real Export Value – Use It Or Lose It”
   3. oilprice.com — Every Chokepoint That Isn't Hormuz
   4. www.briefs.co — Nigeria's 64% Rally Has Room to Run, Says T. Rowe Price Manager
   5. www.housingwire.com — What can the government do to lower mortgage rates?
   confidence 80%
2. 29d ago

   Oil prices remain stable despite global market tensions

   Oil prices are not rising as expected despite global market tensions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The stability in oil prices is attributed to increased production and supply. Experts point to various factors contributing to this trend, including changes in global oil market dynamics. The current state of oil prices is a significant departure from initial expectations of a spike.

   Why it matters

   The stability of oil prices has significant implications for the global economy, as it affects inflation, economic growth, and the profitability of oil-producing countries. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route, had initially raised concerns about a potential oil price spike. However, the market has adjusted to this development, and other factors have come into play.

   What is confirmed

   • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz five months ago did not lead to a sustained oil price spike.
   • Increased production and supply have contributed to the stability of oil prices.

   What to watch next

   • Future oil production levels
   • Global economic growth indicators
   • Developments in the Strait of Hormuz
   Sources used for this update (5)

   1. Paul Krugman | Substack — Why Isn’t the Price of Oil Even Higher?
   2. MarketWatch — Here’s the real reason oil prices aren’t moving higher
   3. Funding the Future — We will bear the cost of this folly
   4. Hart Energy — Opinion: The New Rules of the Global Oil Market—Paisie
   5. dars.gov.et — Oil Price Spike Fears Unrealized Five Months After Strait of Hormuz Closure - Profit Recovery Report
   confidence 80%