Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite tensions, data shows

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1. 1h ago

   Middle East Oil Exports Exceed Pre-War Levels

   Crude oil exports from the Middle East, excluding Iran, have climbed past pre-war levels for the first time since the offensive began in February. Provisional data from maritime tracking firm Kpler shows shipments surpassing the pre-conflict average of 18 million barrels per day, reaching up to 22.5 million barrels per day on certain days in late September. This recovery comes despite ongoing tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and recent military friction. The rise in supply, combined with G7 plans to release crude and diesel stocks, has exerted downward pressure on global oil markets.

   Why it matters

   The rebound in Middle East energy flows highlights the resilience of regional supply chains as producers increasingly utilize pipelines to bypass maritime bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz. Shippers continue to face high security risks in the Gulf, where recent attacks have struck energy infrastructure and shipping vessels, prompting extreme financial incentives for crews. The stability of these shipping routes remains precarious amid ongoing hostilities involving regional actors and Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco sites.

   What is confirmed

   • Middle East oil exports excluding Iran surpassed their pre-war levels, reaching a seven-day moving average of 18.5 million barrels per day on Oct. 1.
   • Pre-conflict shipments averaged 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February before the US-Israeli war with Iran began.
   • Exports exceeded pre-war levels on Sept. 24 and Sept. 27-29, hitting between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day.
   • Crude oil exports reached pre-war levels in September with at least 16.5 million barrels leaving the region excluding Iran.
   • Increased flows are partly driven by pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
   • Yemeni Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco sites, contributing to climbing oil prices prior to recent inventory release announcements.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Shippers are offering sailors up to $25,000 a trip to sneak oil out of the Gulf.
   • An IRGC commander claimed that oil flows through the US-supervised route in Hormuz are negligible.

   What to watch next

   • Implementation and volume of the G7 crude and diesel stock releases
   • Further developments in shipping security and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz
   • Sustained pipeline versus maritime export volumes from Middle Eastern producers
   Sources used for this update (31)

   1. CNN — Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can’t go on like this forever
   2. The New York Times — The Return of Middle East Oil
   3. www.aljazeera.com — US withdraws B-1 bomber aircraft from UK’s Fairford base amid Iran fears
   4. reuters.com — Oil climbs after Yemeni Houthis attack Saudi Aramco sites
   5. cnbc.com — Oil slips as Middle East crude exports rise, G7 to release stocks
   6. reuters.com — Middle East crude oil exports exceed pre-war levels but tanker attacks increase
   7. Al Jazeera — Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite tensions, data shows
   8. WSJ — Oil Prices Fall as G-7 Plans Crude, Diesel Release But Hormuz Shipping Risks Persist
   9. WSJ — Shippers Are Offering Sailors Up to $25,000 a Trip to Sneak Oil Out of the Gulf
   10. dw.com — Middle East oil exports recover to pre-Iran war levels despite Hormuz attacks
   11. www.aljazeera.com — Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite ...
   12. www.iranintl.com — Middle East crude exports exceed pre-war levels despite tanker attacks — Reuters
   confidence 95%