No, Iran is not winning: In Act IV of the war, it’s losing its leverage in Hormuz

Live updates

1. 13d ago

   Iran's leverage in Hormuz eroding amid US pressure

   Iran is losing its leverage in the Hormuz region as the US continues to apply pressure through new strikes and economic sanctions. Tehran's influence has been waning over the past six months, with the region's relationship with the US undergoing a significant transformation. The war has also led to divisions among Iranians in the diaspora and a shift in power dynamics within Iran.

   Why it matters

   The conflict in Hormuz has been ongoing for six months, with the US and Iran engaging in a series of military and economic actions. The region's relationship with the US has undergone a significant transformation, with the US seeking to squeeze Iran through new strikes and economic pain. The war has also had a profound impact on Iranians in the diaspora, leading to divisions and a re-evaluation of their relationships with their home country.

   What is confirmed

   • Iran's influence in the Hormuz region has been waning over the past six months.
   • The US has launched new strikes against Iran, aiming to squeeze Tehran economically.
   • The war has led to divisions among Iranians in the diaspora.

   Still unconfirmed

   • Iran's economy is under severe strain due to the US sanctions.

   What to watch next

   • US economic sanctions on Iran
   • Iran's response to US strikes
   • Regional diplomatic efforts
   Sources used for this update (5)

   1. Council on Foreign Relations — The Iran War at Six Months: A Region—and Its Relationship With the U.S.—Transformed
   2. CNN — No, Tehran is not winning
   3. WSJ — U.S. Tries to Squeeze Iran With New Strikes, Economic Pain
   4. Al Jazeera — Abroad and at odds: How the war has divided Iranians in the diaspora
   5. The Conversation — War has shifted how power works in Iran
   confidence 85%